FXUS62 KKEY 021451 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1051 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1048 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have persisted across two portions of our marine district, mainly over the Gulf waters beyond 20 nm north of the Lower Keys and the eastern Straits and Florida Bay. We are seeing erosion of these echoes with the more robust cells limited to the far northern and eastern portions of our waters. The morning sounding captured the soon-to-be-departing lower-to-mid level moist tropical airmass, with precipitable water just shy of 2.2 inches and little inhibition, a relatively thin layer up through 850 mb or so of light southerlies with west- southwest flow above. As this profile represents the airmass still advecting northward, whereas the nearest available sounding at Grand Cayman indicates a healthy Saharan air/elevated mixed layer that per visible and sandwich imagery is lurking over the central and western Straits. We see no reason for this layer to round the western edge of the lower tropospheric riding over the western north Atlantic with subsequent decrease in rain chances over the following 24 to 36 hours. Given the Saharan Air Layer tends to be mostly aloft, the current upper 70s dew points may not modify downward very much, if at all, given the persisting light to gentle southerly winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 1048 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are in effect for Florida Keys coastal waters zones. South winds were Broad low-level ridging will continue to rebuild over the North Atlantic and support gentle to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters, veering to the southeast to south and modestly slackening throughout the week. Rain chances will briefly taper back mid- week, before increasing again late this week due to a new weather disturbance sliding into the Southeast United States. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Widely separated showers and isolated thunderstorms have moved further away to the north and east of the Florida Keys terminals this morning, with just a slight chance for a vicinity shower or thunderstorm north of the island chain early this afternoon. International terminals over the western Caribbean islands this morning were indicating widespread areas of 5-6SM, mostly likely from haze. Some of this light haze may move in later this afternoon and evening. Southeast to south winds 7 to 11 knots expected to slacken to 4 to 8 knots tonight. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JR Aviation/Nowcasts....JR Data Acquisition.....JR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest