FXUS62 KKEY 020334 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1034 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Small Craft Advisories conditions are expected to continue for all Florida Keys coastal waters through the overnight. - Bitter cold wind chills overnight for the Upper Keys. A Cold Weather Advisory in effect overnight into Monday morning. - Weather will trend drier and modestly warmer over the next few days, but another round of unsettled weather may move through at the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 Very cold conditions persist this evening in wake of yesterdays extraordinary cold front. The cold is being sustained by fresh northwest to northerly breezes, driven by a very cold high cell sliding eastward along the Gulf coast. Temperatures are currently in the lower to mid 50s for much of the island chain. The Upper Keys remain in the cold South Florida shadow and are currently in the mid 40s. While cold air stratocumulus continues to ride southeastward across the Lower and Middle Keys, the Upper Keys, as well as South Florida, have been clear for awhile. Some notable records have been broken with this cold outbreak. This evenings sounding recorded a daily record low precipitable water of .38 inches, beating the prior record of .47 inches. Miami's sounding was even more impressive with .17 inches, with the prior record being .38 inches. Marathon's low temperature of 44 degrees, shattered the prior record by 10 degrees. In addition, Marathon is on track to record a record cold high of 57 degrees, beating the previous record of 65 degrees. The cold air pouring off of South Florida resulted in some island locations reaching daily minimum temperatures well after sunrise. Harbor Key Bank Light, a Weatherflow mesonet station gulf side of Big Pine Key hit 46 F at 10 AM, while Boca Chica saw its minimum of 50 F around noon. Finally, Ocean Reef saw 37 F around 8 am, with a wind chill of 27 F. The previously mentioned high cell will press further eastward along the gulf coast overnight and continue to pour cold air southward across Florida and the Keys. While winds will be quite a bit weaker tonight, they will generally remain moderate to fresh. Some modest lulling is expected for the Lower and Middle Keys region. However, mainland radiational cooling should help to accelerate a land breeze affecting the Upper Keys and adjacent waters. Expect overnight lows similar to slightly lower than the previous night, but with modestly higher wind chill readings due to the weaker flow. Expect the clearing trend to continue, from east to west, due to the lower level flow veering further north. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 Fresh northwest to northerly breezes will continue on Keys waters overnight. Winds may trend downwards on waters west of the Seven Mile Bridge, but surge a bit further to the east due to the expected formation of a South Florida land breeze. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all waters. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals. Stratocumulus should clear out of MTH before morning. Stratocumulus should linger a bit longer at EYW. Surface winds will be moderate to fresh out of the northwest to north, with a significant crosswind component. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for FLZ076. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Monday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest