FXUS62 KILM 201846 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 246 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to cooler weather. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to cooler weather. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Previous forecast remains on track for this week with guidance showing good agreement on an upr- level trough diving into the Mid Atlantic during the mid week period, leading to elevated chances for rain (50-60% PoPs) Tuesday through Thursday following a dry Monday. Not expecting enough precip to put a dent into the drought, and severe weather is not anticipated. Thereafter, the upr-level low will cut off east of the Mid Atlantic region allowing for cool and dry advection into the area, likely leading to a period of slightly below normal temperatures for the first time in quite a while. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR to start off the 18Z TAF period. There currently are patches of MVFR clouds near the coast that will be hit or miss for the remainder of this aftn, but overall the low clouds as well as rain should stay offshore. Confidence for low cigs or vsbys is moderate over KFLO/KLBT late tonight where associated conditions were added into the TAFs, with lower confidence for the other terminals where only VFR was maintained. Any sub-VFR conditions improve to VFR by mid-morning Monday with dry weather persisting through the day. Extended Outlook...Another round of low cigs/vsby possible Tuesday morning, followed by a good chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings at times in rain showers Tuesday through Thursday. && .MARINE... Sub-SCA conditions continue over the next couple days with a weak pressure gradient over the area. A low pressure system will develop offshore starting mid week leading to likely SCA conditions through Friday with even some gale gusts possible, even over the 0-20 NM waters, depending on how close to the coast the low stays and how quickly it strengthens. An improving trend then for marine conditions into the weekend. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...MAS KEY MESSAGES...MAS DISCUSSION...MAS AVIATION...MAS MARINE...MAS