FXUS62 KILM 051111

AFDILM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

611 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been put out for portions of SE NC

through the early morning. Elsewhere, patchy dense fog is

possible. Drive safely!



Updated 12Z aviation discussion.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance of strong to

severe storms.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance 

of strong to severe storms.



After a dry day today aside from some very spotty light showers

well inland, a mid-level trough and sfc cold front will move in

from the west on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center now

highlights a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 out of 5) of severe

storms Friday afternoon and early evening, with the main threat

being damaging wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will increase

through the day, but a lot is contingent on pockets of heating 

and destabilization to occur, and with much cloud cover 

expected early on, the threat appears rather low at this point.

Regardless, chances of rain are at least 80% over most of the

area, with up to quarter to half an inch of rainfall expected 

on average. The front pushes offshore Friday night, giving way 

to dry weather over the weekend into at least early next week.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Lowered VSBYs will plague terminals this morning again. Thoughts

are that KLBT will see worst conditions. Have TEMPOs at other

terminals, with clearing at the coast ~13Z and a bit longer for

inland terminals ~14Z maybe even 15Z. VFR with south winds and

some stratocu then expected through the rest of the day. Showers

are expected to stay west of terminals closer to a stalled

front. Restrictions expected again tonight, though there may be

showers added into the mix, so a bit lower confidence.



Extended Outlook... Restrictions are likely at times through 

Friday evening due to fog and low clouds along with passing 

showers and thunderstorms. VFR is expected to return Friday 

night as drier air filters in and remains in place through the 

remainder of the period.



&&



.MARINE...

Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least early next week. A

cold front crosses the waters Friday night, but post-frontal CAA

is fairly weak so only expecting gusts up to 15-20 kt into the

day Saturday. Even weaker winds for early next week as sfc high

pressure builds directly into the area from the west.



&&



.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096-

     099.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



WHAT HAS CHANGED...LEW 

KEY MESSAGES...MAS 

DISCUSSION...MAS 

AVIATION...LEW 

MARINE...MAS