FXUS62 KGSP 092125 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 525 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front stalls over the Southeast this weekend. By Sunday, an upper low develops, bringing rain back from the south. The slow movement of this system maintains rainy and unsettled weather around through the first half of next week. Some heavy rainfall is early from Sunday night through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 515 PM EDT Friday: Not a whole lot of change to the forecast for this update. Radar shows a few small showers attempting to go up, but quickly collapsing over the Upstate. Current mesoanalysis shows around 1000 J/kg of sbCAPE but also about 900- 1000 J/kg of dCAPE. Weak forcing at the surface so basically anything attempting to go up is not going to sustain itself and collapse. Expect a few brief, pop-up showers over the next few hours until the sun goes down, then all is calm. Surface high pressure builds in from the north overnight with a cooler and drier air mass. Lows will range from near normal up to 5 degrees below normal. An upper low and its associated surface low begin moving north over the lower MS River Valley Saturday. A moist southeasterly low level flow begins by afternoon. Low level moisture and isentropic lift begin to increase as well. Clouds will move back over the area during the day with the potential for showers to move in from the southwest late in the day. Any QPF that develops will be light. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal with the cooler values over the western Upstate and NE GA where clouds and precip move in first. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Friday: An upper low will be in place to our west through the short range period. This will act to pump moisture north into our area through the period. The most substantial push of moisture looks to begin Sunday afternoon and then continuing Sunday night and Monday. Low level flow represented by 850 mb looks to have an upslope component so there should be some enhancement of rain amounts along the escarpment. Some excessive rainfall will be possible especially on Monday so this will have to be watched closely. High temperatures both Sunday and Monday will be 10-13 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Friday: The upper low will move through the area on Tuesday and Wednesday with the chance of rainfall continuing. However, amounts should be lighter after Tuesday as the low level flow shifts to a more westerly direction. The low will move out of the area by Thursday and Friday with ridging buiding in. Temperatures will trend from a few degrees below normal Tuesday to well above normal by late in the week. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR finally scattering out and low VFR Cu or stratocu developing. Latest guidance shows best chance of convection near the SC sites, but chance still too low for TAF mention. Will amend if needed for the convection. Low clouds dissipate by evening as drier air moves in but cirrus remains. Mid clouds begin moving in from the SW overnight with lower VFR holding off until later in the day as low level moisture and southeasterly flow returns. N to NW for the the NC sites this afternoon, including low end gusts at KAVL. SW at the SC sites. All locations go northerly by evening with NE overnight into the day Saturday. KAVL the exception with N wind becoming SE late morning/early afternoon. Outlook: An unsettled pattern returns Saturday night thru the middle of next week, with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances as well as associated restrictions. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...CP/RWH SHORT TERM...SCW LONG TERM...SCW AVIATION...RWH