FXUS62 KGSP 031812 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 212 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the eastern part of the nation gives our region dry weather into the Independence Day holiday weekend. Temperatures remain typical for the summertime season through the beginning of next week. Moisture increases from the east on Sunday associated with a coastal low pressure. Daily afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances return at the beginning of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 pm: Entrenched within an unseasonably dry airmass, few-sct daytime cu field will dissipate this evening, leading to just some cirrus drifting by tonight. Seasonably mild minimum temperatures will be seen to start off the holiday weekend. The 03/12 utc model run consensus continues to suppress richer PWAT values well south and southeast of the CWFA through the day on Friday. We still can't rule out dirunal isolated NC mountain ridgetop showers, but essentially, expect an effectly suppressed afternoon featuring piedmont lower 90s albeit with tumbling sfc depts. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 100 PM Thursday: An upper ridge will build into the OH Valley Saturday, then weaken as it crosses the Mid-Atlantic. Models have trended a little quicker with this progression, bringing a shortwave trough into the Great Lakes by 00z Mon. This has resulted in more uncertainty on a potential tropical/coastal low slowly developing along a stalled front south of the Carolina coast. The 12z NAM and Canadian drift the low N/NW into the GA/SC coastal plain. But the GFS and ECMWF continue to keep the low drifting NE along the coast. In any case, the trends have resulted in an uptick in PoPs for Sunday, especially across the Piedmont, where 30-40% are featured during peak heating hours. There is still a lot of uncertainty with this feature, and the confidence in the PoPs Sunday are low. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions will continue, with slightly above normal temps. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 115 PM Thursday: The upper pattern will gradually amplify with a large ridge building over the West and a deepening trough over the eastern CONUS. The trough should eject whatever low pressure system develops along the Carolina Coast out to the NE by early Monday. So a near-climo diurnal PoP is expected for Monday aftn-eve. PoPs then start to increase each day thru midweek, as the digging trough allows a weak cold front to slide south thru the OH Valley and central Appalachians. The front may stall out across the forecast area and provide enhanced moisture and lift for convection for Tuesday and Wednesday. As such, the NBM PoPs are above climo, with solid chc and likely across the area, highest in the mountains. This seems reasonable. Temps will continue to be above normal, and with increasing moisture/dewpts...heat indices may push into the 100-105F range across portions of the Piedmont. At this time, it doesn't appear we'll need heat advisories for the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR through the period for all terminal locations. Just a mix of cirrus and daytime cumulus through Friday with sfc winds remaining generally NE and less than 10 kts. Outlook: Diurnal deep convection is expected to be inhibited again on Saturday with at most, isolated activity in the mountains. Convective coverage is expected to return to levels more typical of early Summer Sunday/Monday. Fog and/or low stratus possible each morning, mainly in the usual mountain valleys, as well as near lakes and rivers. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...CSH SHORT TERM...ARK LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...CSH