FXUS62 KCHS 030201 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1001 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front is expected to move into the area today and could then linger along or just off the coast through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Tonight: Aloft, h5 shortwave energy will continue to support scattered showers/thunderstorms across inland areas within a warm/moist environment occurring ahead of an approaching cold front. A few stronger thunderstorms and/or isolated severe thunderstorm remain possible with damaging wind gusts being the primary concern through about midnight. Additionally, deep moisture characterized by PWATs around 2 inches along with slower storm motions, generally around 10 mph, could lead to heavier rains in a few locations, and the potential for Flood Advisories. After midnight, deep convection across Southeast Georgia and Southeast South Carolina should wane/dissipate, although some shower activity may linger over the adjacent Atlantic waters late tonight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from near 70 inland to the mid-upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... The surface front is expected to remain stalled along the coast on Thursday. Weak shortwave energy will be moving off the coast in the morning, with mainly weak NVA over the area. PWs will remain fairly high, particularly along the coast, with slightly drier air moving into inland areas. Close to 2000 J/kg CAPE expected to develop during the afternoon with highs in the low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Scattered showers and tstms expected to develop in the afternoon with the greatest coverage closer to the coast mid to late afternoon. Quite a bit of coverage could continue into the early to mid evening including locally heavy rainfall and numerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. Slightly drier air will overspread the area on Friday with the surface front a bit farther off the coast. However, there should still be a moderate sea breeze in the afternoon and enough instability to support scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon/evening. Slightly drier high pressure will move into inland SC on Saturday. However, a potential tropical or subtropical low may develop well off the SC/GA coast and start moving northwest. This could bring increasing coverage of showers and tstms to coastal areas later in the day though the confidence is very low due to large model uncertainties. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The main concern for this period continues to be the possibility that low pressure will develop off the SC/GA coast and then move NW or N toward the area. NHC currently has a 40% chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF are showing increasing chances of development. Even if tropical development doesn't occur, Saturday night through Sunday could be relatively wet, particularly along the coast. Upper ridging heading into the middle of next week should bring increasing temperatures and heat indices. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through Thursday morning, although there are some indications that stratus develops over the terminals late night, with MVFR cigs becoming a possibility between the 08-14Z Thursday time frame. Showers and thunderstorms are also forecast to develop across coastal areas Thursday afternoon and could cause additional flight restrictions. VCTS groups have been introduced to CHS/JZI from 18-23Z Thursday and to SAV from 19-23Z Thursday. Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions will be possible with isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the weekend and into early next week. && .MARINE... Tonight: The sfc pattern should yield southerly winds generally between 10-15 kts. This evening, a slight gradient pinch may yield a period of gusts around 20 kts late this evening. Seas are forecast to range between 2 to 3 ft. Winds/seas expected to remain below advisory criteria Thursday through Sunday. The only caveat is the possibility of a tropical or subtropical low developing off the GA/SC coast on Saturday that could affect the waters Saturday night into Sunday. && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DPB SHORT TERM...JRL LONG TERM...JRL AVIATION...DPB/JRL MARINE...DPB/JRL