FXUS62 KCAE 221828

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

228 PM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

After the frontal passage Monday, increased fire weather

concerns move into the area. Updated aviation discussion for

18z.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1. Well above average temps expected into Monday ahead of a 

  front that bringing some conditional thunderstorm potential.



- 2. Elevated fire weather concerns for Monday and Tuesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above average temps expected into Monday ahead 

of a front that bringing some conditional thunderstorm potential.



Broad ridging over the region today into Monday will help to keep 

temperatures well above average for this time of year. Highs into 

Monday are forecast to run 15-20 degrees above average, pushing 90F 

in some spots. The record highs for CAE and AGS are 92F for today 

and 93F for Monday for both locations. We have a low-end chance of 

reaching those temps today, but think we'll stay just below that. 

With a front moving into the area tomorrow, don't think the temps 

will threaten the record. 



A southward sinking cold front approaches the area late Monday 

afternoon and bring a low chance for thunderstorms (10-20%) to the I-

20 corridor and areas southeast of there. The setup for a potential 

severe storm remains highly conditional severe setup with numerous 

factors that need line up spatially and temporally. Instability 

increases into the afternoon, but looks to be marginal at best for a 

strong to severe storm. In addition, the timing of the front may be 

too soon for the instability to build up enough to produce any 

stronger cells. Moisture convergence also continues to look weak 

along the front. Therefore, the coverage of any convection is 

anticipated to be limited. A marginal risk for severe storms 

continues for tomorrow for anything that may develop and catch just 

the right spot to become strong. Latest guidance indicates that the 

front could linger near the area into Tuesday, which brings 

additional rain chances for Tuesday afternoon.





KEY MESSAGE 2: Elevated fire weather concerns for Monday and Tuesday.



After the front passes on Monday, much drier air and breezy 

conditions are expected to filter into the area. Near critical to 

critical RH levels are anticipated Monday and Tuesday afternoons 

with Tuesday afternoon likely being the drier day. Winds are also 

expected to gust to 20-25 mph tomorrow and close to that on Tuesday. 

Despite the recent rainfall in some spots, fuels remain dry across 

the region, so fire weather concerns are expected for both days. 

That said, we are anticipated to remain above the RH threshold (30% 

or less) for a Fire Danger Statement Monday, but the RH levels are 

somewhat dependent on how quickly the front moves through the 

region. A faster front would result in lower RH values in the 

afternoon. For now, we are holding off on an FDS and will continue 

to monitor trends. Although the RH values will likely be lower on 

Tuesday, the winds are forecast to be lower than Monday. So, Tuesday 

is looking like another marginal day for an FDS. Even though we 

aren't issuing a Fire Danger Statement for tomorrow at this time, 

caution should be used with any activity that could spark a fire. 



After Tuesday, fairly benign weather is anticipated into late in the 

work week as temperatures begin to rebound after a "cool"

Tuesday.&&



.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR conditions expected to continue the 24 hours.



Mostly clear skies still expected through much of the period due to 

how dry the airmass continues to be.  May see a few thin cirrus 

stream over the area, and possibly a few cumulus try to develop into 

the afternoon, but vfr will remain.  Winds will remain up through 

the entire period, withgusts expected this afternoon up to 20 

knots, and again Monday up to around 20 knots again.  Sustained 

winds look to remain around 10 knots even overnight.  The dry air 

and winds will really inhibit fog formation, so vfr visibilities 

will remain.  Models do show a cold front moving into the area on 

Monday, but not expected really until Monday afternoon/evening right 

now, which is just outside this forecast period.  



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A more significant cold front will move 

through on Monday, with a limited chance for restrictions. Overall, 

conditions will be most likely VFR for the next several days.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...29

AVIATION...CAL