FXUS62 KCAE 212348

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

748 PM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

A few showers or perhaps a thunderstorm will move into the 

northwestern FA this evening, but the severe threat is waning. 

Aviation discussion updated for the 00z TAFs.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1: Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm remain possible this evening

  across northwestern portions of the FA.



- 2. Well above average temperatures expected to continue through

  Monday before a front moves in next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and perhaps a thunderstorm remain

possible this evening across northwestern portions of the FA.



Convection developed across the Upstate as expected this

afternoon but the activity has struggled to make it into the

forecast area with a lone shower moving through northern 

Fairfield County at this time. Now that the sun is setting, the

severe threat will quickly wane but a few additional showers or

perhaps a thunderstorm should reach our northwestern FA this 

evening. Much of this activity should remain north of the

Columbia Metro area though a remnant shower cannot be ruled 

out. Locations south and west of the I-26 corridor should remain

dry this evening.



KEY MESSAGE 2: Well above average temperatures expected to continue 

through Monday before a front moves in next week.



No notable changes in the forecast for late weekend and early next 

week as confidence remains high in well above average temperatures 

Sunday-Monday as upper ridging strengthens over the area. NAEFS mean 

continues to indicate 850mb temperatures rise to above the 99th to 

99.5th percentile. While not expected to reach daily records through 

Sunday or Monday, blended guidance indicates highs will be 15 to 20 

degrees above seasonal average, generally in the mid to upper 80s. A 

front is expected to move into the area late Monday, leading to a 

slight chance for showers and storms followed by temperatures closer 

to seasonal average for the middle of next week. The air mass behind 

the front is not forecast to be particularly cold, so frost or 

freeze are not expected through the end of next week.



Given the persistent low-level dry air and northwest winds, we are 

entering a period of increasing fire danger concerns given the 

lingering drought conditions. Wind speeds however are expected to 

remain below critical thresholds, with max wind gusts around 20 mph 

Sunday-Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions expected over the 24hr forecast period.



Quiet conditions continue across the area this evening. The 

expected showers/storms have developed across the upstate but 

are promptly weakening and falling apart as they approach our 

forecast area. As such, TAF sites shouldn't see much outside of 

some left over cloud debris. There may be a remnant light shower

that impacts CAE/CUB in a few hours but this is a low 

predictability outcome right now given the way these storms have

struggled this evening. Winds are forecast to hang around the 

area this evening as a strong low-level jet develops overnight, 

around 20-25 knots. Expect variable surface winds of 3-6 knots 

throughout the night because of this. As we get into the day on 

Sunday, breezy winds are expected for much of the day. Look for 

southwesterly winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots 

expected. Any clouds that develop are forecast to remain VFR 

through the day. 



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A more significant cold front will move 

through on Monday, with a slightly better chance for restrictions. 

Overall, conditions will be most likely VFR for the next several 

days.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...7

AVIATION...PL