FXUS62 KCAE 051145

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

645 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Some morning fog in the Pee Dee. Aviation discussion updated 

for the 12z TAF issuance.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1. Showers are expected through Friday with a few

  thunderstorms also possible today and Friday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Key Message 1: Showers are expected through Friday with a few 

thunderstorms also possible today and Friday. 



An upper trough over the Great Plains is beginning to phase with

an upper low and trough currently over the central CONUS. The

leading edge of this trough is inching its way over the

Southeast early this morning. An embedded shortwave is sparking

a few showers and storms in the CSRA and western Midlands.

Expect this activity to decrease through the early morning

hours as the shortwave moves through and away from the area. 



A nearly stationary surface front is draped over the Blue Ridge

this morning. The front is expected to inch eastward for much of

the day today until the aforementioned upper troughs fully phase

and help to push the front eastward later today and through the

area late tonight into Friday morning. As the front approaches

later today, some scattered showers and storms are anticipated

to redevelop during the afternoon. Overnight as the front begins

to move through the forecast area, additional development of

showers and storms are expected. The HRRR deterministic model

and REFS ensemble both show some instability exceeding 500 J/kg

and 0-6 km shear in the 20-30 kt range. This could lead to a

stronger storm or two overnight tonight into the early morning 

hours Friday, with gusty winds being the main threat with any 

stronger storms. Activity is forecast to push east of the area

by midday or so as the front moves through. Dry, cool air then 

filters into the area Friday afternoon and remains in place 

through the weekend.



Latest rainfall amounts continue to remain relatively steady 

this morning. NBM QMD probabilities of one half an inch through

Friday morning continue to be around 40 to 60 percent for areas

north and west of I-20. Some locally higher amounts are possible

with thunderstorms.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Mix of MVFR/IFR conditions expected through the morning with 

some possible showers as well throughout the TAF period.



Scattered showers have cleared the area this morning with

stratus the main feature of note this morning. A mix of MVFR/IFR

cigs expected after through 16z or with fairly high confidence 

in periods of IFR between 12-14z at AGS and DNL. Winds will

slowly pick up out of the southeast today after 15z but only up

to 5 knots or so. A few showers are possible again Thursday 

afternoon into overnight and possibly a thunderstorm is expected

this afternoon but confidence in location and timing is low.

Prob30 group included for now to cover some of this potential.

Lowering cigs likely again overnight towards the end of the TAF

period.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for rain

particularly again Friday may lead to some lower CIGS or VSBY 

restrictions. Conditions should improve over the weekend.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...29

AVIATION...42