FXUS62 KCAE 031843 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 243 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak front moves east, bringing slightly drier air through the latter portion of the week. Isolated showers and storms possible through Friday as a weak surface boundary sits over the area. Deeper moisture may return to the region this weekend leading to increased rain chances which will continue through much of the long term. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated storms around these evening as a front slowly moves through the area. The very slow moving and diffuse front continues to plod across the region. Notably drier air is filling in behind this PWAT's falling below 1.25" for much of the area. The higher PWAT's, mainly easter of I-95, will serve as the focus for convection this afternoon and evening. The instability gradient largely follows the moisture gradient, with the 1500+ ML CAPE again mainly along and east of I-95, steadily weakening to the northwest. As such, PoP's are quite low across the much of the area today with only a few isolated showers and storms expected in the Midlands and CSRA. As is already playing out, coverage will be highest in the extreme eastern Midlands but the severe and flood threat is still low. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated showers and storms - Expect above normal temperatures for Independence Day A weak surface boundary will remain draped over the area becoming increasingly diffuse through the short term. PWAT values remain around 1.25 inches across the Upstate and wester Midlands with deeper moisture closer to the coast. This suppress convective development each afternoon. While isolated coverage is still expected, the greater rain chances will be restricted to along the coast. Temperatures for Friday will be slightly above normal with mostly clear skies. Highs should be in the mid 90s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Key Message(s): - Moisture returns to the region in the long term Global models continue to be persistent developing weak low pressure offshore along the stalled surface boundary. The favored zone of development is off the Atlantic Coast from northern FL to NC. There remains a good deal in uncertainty in the track of the low which will largely determine our weather through most of the long term. At this point there is some potential for strong moisture advection into the Southeast bringing widespread rain but there are also ensemble members that keep us completely dry through the period. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions likely through the period outside of very isolated showers-storms this evening. A front has worked through the region bringing some generally air and reducing precip chances this afternoon. The front is draped across eastern SC, so the convective chances at the TAF sites will be low the rest of Thursday with only enough confidence for a VCSH mention. Otherwise, winds have turned out of the northeast for all sites as of 18z and will remain in the 6-10 kt range this afternoon. Dry air tonight should mitigate and fog chances so there's no TAF mention at this time. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...