FXUS62 KCAE 031732 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 132 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak front moves east, bringing slightly drier air through the latter portion of the week. Generally this will limit afternoon convective coverage. However an isolated storm will still be possible with highest chances towards the coast. Moisture may move back into the area this weekend and through the remainder of the long term promoting at least a chance of rain each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated storms around these evening as a front slowly moves through the area. The very slow moving and diffuse front continues to plod across the region. Notably drier air is filling in behind this PWAT's falling below 1.25" for much of the area. The higher PWAT's, mainly easter of I-95, will serve as the focus for convection this afternoon and evening. The instability gradient largely follows the moisture gradient, with the 1500+ ML CAPE again mainly along and east of I-95, steadily weakening to the northwest. As such, PoP's are quite low across the much of the area today with only a few isolated showers and storms expected in the Midlands and CSRA. As is already playing out, coverage will be highest in the extreme eastern Midlands but the severe and flood threat is still low. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Mainly isolated showers and storms possible. - Expect a above normal temperatures for Independence Day - Slightly cooler for Saturday. Surface front will be off to the east of the forecast area through the short term, with the main boundary off the coast. In addition, deeper moisture should remain confined to areas further east on Friday, with mainly isolated afternoon convection possible over the far eastern portions of the forecast area. By Saturday, the moisture will begin to move further inland, allowing for the convection to spread more into the Midlands and CSRA for the afternoon hours. Low pressure could develop Saturday night along the weakened front off the southeastern coast. Temperatures for Friday will be slightly above normal with a good amount of sunshine through the day. Highs mostly in the middle 90s. Saturday will see slightly cooler afternoon temperatures, although readings still reach around 90 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Message(s): - Low pressure development possible off the coast late in the weekend. The front off the coast will be rather diffuse on Sunday. However most of the guidance has been consistent with developing an area of low pressure along the front somewhere off the southeastern US coast by Sunday. There is some uncertainty though as to how strong the low could be, along with where it could track. Some guidance brings the low towards the SC coast and slightly inland by Sunday morning, while other guidance brings it right along the coast, then back out to the western Atlantic early next week. Either scenario should bring moisture back inland, allowing form scattered afternoon convection to develop each day. Temperatures each day near or slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions likely through the period outside of very isolated showers-storms this evening. A front has worked through the region bringing some generally air and reducing precip chances this afternoon. The front is drapped across eastern SC, so the convective chances at the TAF sites will be low the rest of Thursday with only enough confidence for a VCSH mention. Otherwise, winds have turned out of the northeast for all sites as of 18z and will remain in the 6-10 kt range this afternoon. Dry air tonight should mitigate and fog chances so theres no TAF mention at this time. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...