FXUS62 KCAE 030148 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 948 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front approaches the region leading to increasing rain and thunderstorm chances again today. Rainfall may be heavy at times and could lead to localized flooding mainly in flood prone areas. A drier air mass will sink into the Southeast tonight and through the latter portion of the week. Generally this will limit afternoon convective coverage. However an isolated storm will still be possible with highest chances towards the coast. Moisture may move back into the area this weekend and through the remainder of the long term promoting at least a chance of rain each day. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Key Message(s): - A few showers and storms will continue this evening before clearing overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue this evening as a slowly moving front and upper trough move toward the region. The moisture gradient remains in place with drier air toward the upstate and over 2" of PW toward the coast. While the cap is starting to develop with the loss of heating, we maintain 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE over a good chunk of the forecast area which is helping to sustain our weak convection. That said, we should gradually see precip diminish over the next several hours as it slowly moves south. Until then, heavy rain remains the biggest threat due to slow storm motion and abundant atmospheric moisture. We haven't had much in the way of gusty winds today, so don't expect that threat to suddenly develop now. Only other thing to mention is the potential for stratus and patchy fog to develop toward dawn on Thursday. Low temperatures continue to be mild in the low to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key Message(s): - Isolated showers and storms possible in the short term - Expect a seasonably hot Independence Day Impactful weather not expected in the short term. A dry air mass will slip into the forecast for Thursday. This will work to hinder convective development in the short term, especially north and west of I-20 where mean NAEFS PWAT values range between 1.25 and 1.5 inches. We cannot rule out a few isolated storms particularly in the eastern FA nearer the coast however coverage will likely be lower than a typical summer day. Mid level ridging builds back into the forecast area for Friday which will lead to temperatures slightly above normal, with highs in the mid 90s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Message(s): - Rain chances return to the forecast this weekend The surface boundary that will be stalled over the Southeast/East Coast could serve as the focus for low pressure to develop this weekend. If development occurs this could draw moisture back into the region potentially through the end of the long term. There remains a large spread in model guidance for moisture over the region highlighting the uncertainty but there will be at least a chance of rain each day. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Scattered SHRA and a few TSRA linger near the terminals this evening; some CIG/VSBY restrictions expected Thursday morning. While direct terminal impacts are uncertain, ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA remain possible through about 03/04z. Cloud decks SCT-BKN AOA 5kft MSL. SFC winds generally SELY to SWLY less than 10 kts, weakening to light and variable or perhaps calm through the night. Guidance suggests some low stratus and MVFR VSBY restrictions in fog Thursday morning similar to the last few mornings. Skies then clear mid to late Thursday morning with winds becoming NELY. Confidence too low for mention of any convection at the terminals Thursday, but precip chances will be much lower with the exception of OGB. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Patchy low clouds and/or ground fog possible each night along with diurnally favored showers and thunderstorms. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$