FXUS62 KCAE 020056

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

856 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A weak front approaches the region leading to increasing rain

and thunderstorm chances through Wednesday. Rainfall may be

heavy at times and could lead to localized flooding mainly in

flood prone areas. Drier air works into the forecast area from 

the north and west for the latter portion of the week limiting 

thunderstorm coverage with highest chances towards the coast.

Isolated to scattered showers possible this weekend as low

pressure potentially develops along the remnant frontal

boundary.



&&



.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

Key Message(s):



- A few showers and storms remain possible across the area this 

  evening.



Storms have had a difficult time overcoming some drier air aloft 

today, and we're only just now starting to see some development 

south of the I-20 corridor. There remains an area of higher PW 

across the western FA, with values of 2"-2.2". Showers and storms 

have kind of hit a wall when trying to work into the region from the 

west, though recent hi-res guidance continues to suggest a weak line 

may make it through the region late tonight. That said, any 

convection would be elevated and likely carry a low severe threat 

given capping starting to develop with the loss of heating. Heavy 

rain potential will still exist, particularly with any training 

cells, but storm motion should preclude much flash flooding threat. 

Otherwise, widespread cloud cover overnight should limit radiational 

cooling and expect lows to be in the lower 70s. Similar to last 

night/this morning, a stratus deck is likely to develop toward 

daybreak, but this will mainly be an aviation issue.



&&



.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

Key Message(s):



- Widespread showers and storms 

- Localized flash flood risk mainly in flood prone areas



An upper trough will shift into the eastern US on Wednesday. The

associated cold front will sag into the Southeast providing

surface convergence to aid in convective initiation during the 

afternoon. PWATs above 2 inches, low level convergence, and weak

synoptic support will promote widespread showers and storms 

during the afternoon. Heavy rain will be possible given the 

above normal atmospheric moisture and weak to moderate 

instability in tall, skinny CAPE profiles. Although widespread 

flash flooding appears unlikely due to storm motion values 

around 10 kts, we may still see localized flash flooding, mainly

in urban areas and other flood prone locations. With widespread

rain expected, temperatures should be a bit cooler Wednesday 

with highs in the mid to upper 80s.



&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Key Message(s):



- Drier air enters the region from the north and west



A weak frontal boundary will settle across the Southeast during

the latter portion of the week. With drier air impinging on the

FA behind the front we will see lower rain chances from Thursday

to Saturday compared to Wednesday. Depending on where the front

settles, storm chances may be limited to the eastern half of the

FA with higher rain chances near the coast. This weekend some 

ensemble members indicate potential for low pressure to develop

along the remnants of the old frontal boundary. If this occurs 

that may draw moisture back into the region depending on the 

location of development.



&&



.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Low End Risk for a Passing Shower or Thunderstorm this

Evening....



Thunderstorms have struggled to develop today across the

forecast area. One line of decaying convection is approaching 

AGS/DNL with a second cluster approaching OGB. Have added a 

TEMPO for thunderstorms during the next few hours at these sites

while keeping VCSH at CAE/CUB on the off chance something 

develops there before nightfall. Much of the overnight period 

is expected to be quiet as any lingering convection quickly 

diminishes with the loss of daytime heating. Guidance is once 

again hinting at the potential for low ceilings tomorrow morning

so opted for mainly a persistence forecast at all terminals 

with a TEMPO for LIFR at DNL where decks were the lowest this 

morning. Ceilings should improve around midday giving way to 

scattered cumulus and eventually the threat for showers and 

thunderstorms in the afternoon. Leaving thunder chances out of 

the TAFs for now due to lower confidence. Probabilities for 

thunder in the afternoon will likely be highest at OGB.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Patchy low clouds and/or ground 

fog possible each night along with diurnally favored showers and

thunderstorms.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$