FXUS61 KRNK 201924

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

324 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes to the forecast other than to trend even

cooler for the latter half of the week. Forecast coastal storm 

off New England coast suggests an extended period of cold air 

advection Wednesday through Friday.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Unsettled weather expected through midweek as a front 

remains stalled over the region...temperatures trending

noticeably cooler by Wednesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather expected through midweek as a 

front remains stalled over the region...temperatures trending 

noticeably cooler by Wednesday.



Convective allowing models have showers and storms developing

along the Blue Ridge late this afternoon and moving southeast 

into the piedmont this evening before dissipating after sunset.

A few strong storms (one or two severe) are possible, but the 

environment is marginal with respect to severe storm and 

excessive rainfall potential. MLCAPE of about 1000 J/KG is noted

along the southern Blue Ridge and this will likely fuel a round

of thunderstorms this evening. DCAPE of 500-800 j/KG should 

enhance the downdraft winds with any shower activity with 

potential to produce some 25 to 35 mph wind gusts with the

stronger storms. Not overly concerned with excessive rainfall 

per ongoing drought and transient nature of any activity that 

develops through this evening. Once the sun goes down, expect 

storms to weaken.



Another 24 hours of heat and humidity is expected, then we 

should begin to trend much cooler. A front to our north will be 

the clash zone for a multi-day period of shower activity with 

several waves of convectively induced vorticity moving along the

front spawning periodic showers and thunderstorms as the front 

works its way through the area Monday and Tuesday. Passage of 

the front Monday night will bring a wind shift from the north 

and onset of a cooler air airmass. This cooler airmass will 

then deepen and become more pronounced Wednesday into Thursday 

as a coastal storm develops along the northern Mid Atlantic 

Coast with model trends developing this into a hybrid 

subtropical storm off the New England Coast...a feature that 

looks to influence our weather for multiple days in the form of 

strong cold air advection...winds blowing from the north through

Friday. Persistent cloud cover associated with the colder 

airmass will then mute our temperatures with readings 10 to 15 

degrees below the seasonal norm and a full 20 to 25 degrees 

below current observed values. 



During this transition, we should experience multiple days of 

showery weather with potential to receive 1-2" of rain. This 

is expected to be much needed rainfall, so unless we see the

activity become stationary, we do not anticipate issuing any 

flood watch headlines. If there is any flooding it would be 

localized and during the time when the front backdoors into the

area Monday night when storm cell movement along the boundary 

tends to be nearly stationary along Blue Ridge as it wedges into

the area from the northeast. 



The bigger story will be the significant cool down with 

potential to remain stuck in the 50s and 60s Wednesday and 

Thursday. Cold air advection is expected to persist for multiple

days so it may take until the weekend to return to readings near

normal. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Mainly VFR through this evening outside any shower and

thunderstorm activity. CAMS favor the southern Blue Ridge,

southwest of Roanoke this afternoon and evening for thunderstorm

development which may impact routes between ROA-CLT or ROA-ATL.



After the daytime deep convection fades at sunset, expect return

to stable conditions with potential for overnight fog and

stratus for the mountain valleys and across areas that received

any rain. A late night or early morning round of showers and

thunderstorms may impact WV terminals Monday morning from storm

activity that crosses the Ohio Valley overnight. 



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...



Rain chances increase Monday and Tuesday with numerous to 

widespread coverage. During this time expect periods of sub-VFR

conditions and potential heavy rain. Fog at night can also be 

expected, especially in the mountain valleys. 



For the latter half of the week, gusty north winds are expected

per forecast of strong cyclone developing off the New England 

Coast. Clouds and showers from this feature may linger over the

Mid-Atlantic through Friday. 



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...PM

AVIATION...PM