FXUS61 KRNK 091733

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

133 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front will pass through the Mid-Atlantic today. Scattered

showers and a few thunderstorms are possible early this

afternoon, followed by clearing and breezy conditions for the

late afternoon and evening. High pressure will pass over the

region this weekend promoting dry weather.  Another storm 

system will cross the region early next week, providing an 

opportunity for a widespread wetting rain Monday into Tuesday.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 100 PM EDT Friday...



1) A few isolated afternoon showers and storms.



2) Much drier and cooler airmass arrives tonight.



Cold front continues to move east through the region this

afternoon and will completely push through by the overnight. The

frontal passage will bring much drier air with dew points

falling into the 30s and 40s tonight and remain in place through

tomorrow. Along the front, a few isolated storms will be

possible, mainly over central Virginia, with any storms coming

to an end by sunset. 



High pressure building in behind the front will set the stage 

for a cold night with lows ranging from the 30s mountains to the

low 40s piedmont. Temperatures in the lower 30s may promote 

frost formation for parts of WV and within the sheltered 

mountain valleys such as Burkes Garden, VA.



After a cool start in the morning, temperatures on Saturday

will rebound into the 60s and 70s by the afternoon. Mostly 

clear skies in the morning, but increasing clouds through the 

day as the next storm system begins to strengthen across the 

southeast, spreading clouds northward by Saturday evening.



&&



.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

As of 109 PM EDT Saturday...



Key Messages:



1. Dry weather through Sunday, rain chances increase Monday.



2. Flood threat increases Monday.



A cool dry high pressure system will wedge over the region into

Monday, then moves offshore Monday night. An upper level low 

over the lower Mississippi Valley will push a shortwave over the

area Monday. This shortwave will tap both Gulf and Atlantic 

moisture to bring periods of rain Monday into Monday night. 

Rainfall amounts will range from a half of an inch north of 

Highway 460 to one and a half inches south. With a long Atlantic

fetch, upslope flow will bring higher amounts (2-3 inches) 

along the eastern side of the Blue Ridge. 



Temperatures will be near normal Sunday, then 5F to 10F cooler 

than normal Monday.



&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 127 PM EDT Saturday...



Key Messages:



1. Widespread rainfall through Tuesday night.



2. Slight Risk for excessive rainfall that may result in flooding 

Tuesday.



More rain is expected Tuesday as the wedge erodes. Once the 

wedge is removed, precipitation will switch to showers. Since we

will remain relative cool with southeasterly flow, thunderstorm

chances increases slightly, but the threat for severe weather 

is very low. An additional half to one inch of rain is possible 

Tuesday. With all this rain, the flood threat will increase 

Monday into Tuesday.



The closed low over the southern Mississippi Valley will open 

into a trough and move over the region Wednesday. Rain chances 

will begin to decrease Wednesday night as a weak cold front 

slides over the area. High pressure will keep the area dry and 

warm weather returns to end the workweek.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 110 PM EDT Friday...



VFR conditions expected for the current 24 hour TAF period. 



Cold front continues to move east this afternoon with only a

very isolated chance of rain or thunderstorm. Most rain/storm

activity should remain east of LYH/DAN so did not add VCTS for

this afternoon. High pressure builds in tonight and skies will

clear.



High pressure remains in control tomorrow with partly sunny

skies, but increasing cirrus through the day. Winds will be 

light.





EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 



Expecting widespread VFR through Saturday night. 



A surface low pressure system makes its way to the Mid- 

Atlantic to provide widespread precipitation (and sub-VFR 

conditions), possibly as early as Sunday. There is potential 

for an extended period of rain and low cigs late Monday through 

early Wednesday.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ508.



&&



$$



SYNOPSIS...BMG/PM

NEAR TERM...BMG

SHORT TERM...RCS

LONG TERM...RCS

AVIATION...BMG