FXUS61 KRNK 062351

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

751 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Frontal system to bring showers/storm through this evening.

Showers linger through Thursday.



2) Shower chances again late in the weekend into next Monday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frontal system to bring showers/storm through this

evening. Showers linger through Thursday.



Several pieces of shortwave energy will push across the area

through Thursday with a frontal passage aiding in low level 

convergence. Widespread showers have been ongoing for most of

the day so far, but should gradually taper off over the next 

few hours. Visible satellite indicates widespread cloud cover 

with very few breaks in the clouds at the moment, but 

additional breaks possible late this afternoon so still possible

to see some sun.



RAP analysis does indicate some instability increasing over the

southern portions of the forecast area over the next few hours,

along with CAMs supporting some scattered storm development.

This coincides with breaks of clouds currently over east TN and

western NC. Should these breaks work north, could have a better

chance of storms. However, still not expecting any widespread 

redevelopment of storms later this afternoon/evening given

current trends.



Rainfall amounts have been reduced with most averaging a quarter

to half an inch, with even lesser amounts along the I64

corridor. Any thunderstorms or training of heavier showers 

could bring locally 2 inch amounts.



With the front moving through Thursday and potential for more

cloud cover, have lowered highs a couple degrees from the models

with mid 50s to lower 60s for most of the area, potentially

reaching 70 across the NC foothills.



High pressure builds in Friday with dry weather returning along

with cooler temperatures. 





KEY MESSAGE 2... Shower chances this weekend into Monday.



The closed upper-level low over eastern Canada will continue to

bring cyclonic flow and multiple shortwave energies near the base

of the mean trough. This will facilitate the progression of a 

strong cold front that will sweep through the eastern half of the 

country Sunday into Monday. 



High pressure and a slight cooldown follow for Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

For now, flight conditions for most are VFR, with a few pockets

of MVFR to IFR. However, that will change within the next couple

of hours as another round of showers reaches the area this

evening. Coverage of showers will increase during the overnight

period, and continue into Thursday. Showers will start to taper

off in the west by Thursday mid morning, and then in the east by

midday. Throughout this time, expect sub-VFR ceilings and

periods of reduced visibility within rain showers. There could

also be some embedded thunderstorms in this next round of

precipitation, but most of the lightning appears to be south of

the forecast area at this time. Could also see patchy dense fog

develop during the morning hours with ample surface moisture 

from the rain. All sites look to return to VFR after 21Z or so

Thursday, but still cloudy. 



Winds will be mostly west to northwesterly through the 

overnight hours, turning more north/northwesterly in the 

mountains and then northeast to easterly for the Piedmont 

Thursday afternoon. Speeds will generally by 8 to 12 knots or 

so, but gusts up to 20 knots are possible.





Forecast confidence is moderate. 





EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 



VFR conditions are expected to return late Thursday, and persist 

Friday into Saturday. Sunday has another front and shower/storm 

chances with sub-VFR possible.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BMG/WP

AVIATION...AS/VFJ/WP