FXUS61 KRNK 061759

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

159 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Some storms still possible through the evening, but not

expecting widespread convection. 



Have lowered rainfall amounts through Thursday.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Frontal system to bring showers/storm through this evening.

Showers linger through Thursday.



2) Shower chances again late in the weekend into next Monday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frontal system to bring showers/storm through this

evening. Showers linger through Thursday.



Several pieces of shortwave energy will push across the area

through Thursday with a frontal passage aiding in low level 

convergence. Widespread showers have been ongoing for most of

the day so far, but should gradually taper off over the next 

few hours. Visible satellite indicates widespread cloud cover 

with very few breaks in the clouds at the moment, but 

additional breaks possible late this afternoon so still possible

to see some sun.



RAP analysis does indicate some instability increasing over the

southern portions of the forecast area over the next few hours,

along with CAMs supporting some scattered storm development.

This coincides with breaks of clouds currently over east TN and

western NC. Should these breaks work north, could have a better

chance of storms. However, still not expecting any widespread 

redevelopment of storms later this afternoon/evening given

current trends.



Rainfall amounts have been reduced with most averaging a quarter

to half an inch, with even lesser amounts along the I64

corridor. Any thunderstorms or training of heavier showers 

could bring locally 2 inch amounts.



With the front moving through Thursday and potential for more

cloud cover, have lowered highs a couple degrees from the models

with mid 50s to lower 60s for most of the area, potentially

reaching 70 across the NC foothills.



High pressure builds in Friday with dry weather returning along

with cooler temperatures. 





KEY MESSAGE 2... Shower chances this weekend into Monday.



The closed upper-level low over eastern Canada will continue to

bring cyclonic flow and multiple shortwave energies near the base

of the mean trough. This will facilitate the progression of a 

strong cold front that will sweep through the eastern half of the 

country Sunday into Monday. 



High pressure and a slight cooldown follow for Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...



Flight conditions are a bit of a mixed bag during the next 24 hours 

with the presence of a front, ample atmospheric moisture and off and 

on showers. Cigs are a bit higher than anticipated, but we are 

currently in a bit of a lull between rounds of rain this afternoon. 

Cigs will likely drop below 3kft at most sites later this evening as 

another round of showers crosses southwest VA. Expect some morning 

vsby issues with all the new surface moisture from recent rain. Rain 

is also expected to continue into Thursday.



Winds are currently out of the west or southwest, but will turn 

towards the north by sunrise Thursday. They will be about 8-12 kts, 

with a few gusts as high as 20 kts.



Confidence in the above scenario is average.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 



Sub-VFR conditions are forecasted to persist Thursday, with 

showers and possible thunderstorms. Expect improving conditions 

Friday into Saturday. Sunday has another front and shower/storm

chances with sub-VFR possible.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BMG/WP

AVIATION...VFJ/WP