FXUS61 KRNK 061734

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

134 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...



Some storms still possible through the evening, but not

expecting widespread convection. 



Have lowered rainfall amounts through Thursday.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Frontal system to bring showers/storm through this evening.

Showers linger through Thursday.



2) Shower chances again late in the weekend into next Monday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frontal system to bring showers/storm through this

evening. Showers linger through Thursday.



Several pieces of shortwave energy will push across the area

through Thursday with a frontal passage aiding in low level 

convergence. Widespread showers have been ongoing for most of

the day so far, but should gradually taper off over the next 

few hours. Visible satellite indicates widespread cloud cover 

with very few breaks in the clouds at the moment, but 

additional breaks possible late this afternoon so still possible

to see some sun.



RAP analysis does indicate some instability increasing over the

southern portions of the forecast area over the next few hours,

along with CAMs supporting some scattered storm development.

This coincides with breaks of clouds currently over east TN and

western NC. Should these breaks work north, could have a better

chance of storms. However, still not expecting any widespread 

redevelopment of storms later this afternoon/evening given

current trends.



Rainfall amounts have been reduced with most averaging a quarter

to half an inch, with even lesser amounts along the I64

corridor. Any thunderstorms or training of heavier showers 

could bring locally 2 inch amounts.



With the front moving through Thursday and potential for more

cloud cover, have lowered highs a couple degrees from the models

with mid 50s to lower 60s for most of the area, potentially

reaching 70 across the NC foothills.



High pressure builds in Friday with dry weather returning along

with cooler temperatures. 





KEY MESSAGE 2... Shower chances this weekend into Monday.



The closed upper-level low over eastern Canada will continue to

bring cyclonic flow and multiple shortwave energies near the base

of the mean trough. This will facilitate the progression of a 

strong cold front that will sweep through the eastern half of the 

country Sunday into Monday. 



High pressure and a slight cooldown follow for Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Showers will advance across much of the area this morning with

cigs starting at VFR but decreasing to MVFR to IFR through the

day. There will be a respite in the coverage of the showers this

afternoon but still scattered around. A few storms are possible

as well especially southwest of a line from LWB-MTV. 



Southwest to west winds may gust around 20kts through the day.



This evening into the overnight cigs will likely tank in the IFR

category as well as vsbys sinking to 1 to 3sm, possibly lower

as main threat of rain looks to shift south of the VA/NC border

and fog could be an issue.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 



Sub-VFR conditions are forecasted to persist Thursday, with 

showers and possible thunderstorms. Expect improving conditions 

Friday into Saturday. Sunday has another front and shower/storm

chances with sub-VFR possible.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BMG/WP

AVIATION...VFJ/WP