FXUS61 KRNK 051805

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

205 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Updated forecast given recent guidance.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...



1) Unsettled weather will persist through the rest of this week

and into upcoming weekend with daily chances of showers and 

thunderstorms with marginal risks of excessive rainfall for all

or portions of the area.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather will persist through the rest of

this week and into upcoming weekend with daily chances of 

showers and thunderstorms with marginal risks of excessive 

rainfall for all or portions of the area.



As the previous upper cutoff low has dampened into the large

scale flow aloft the area will remain between the Bermuda high

off to the east and a upper longwave trough to the west. This

setup allows for an ongoing south to southwesterly fetch

maintaining ample deep layer moisture advecting northward. With

no sign of any main feature or wave traversing across the area,

the forcing mechanism for convection will largely be daytime

heating and orographic lift keeping the greatest chances across

the mountains each day through the rest of the work week. High

PWATs in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch range will support hydrometeor

loading within showers and storms to be efficient rain producers

and allow for isolated flash flooding potential as well. See the

hydrology section below for more details.



A weak shortwave along more zonal flow is progged to approach 

the area Saturday into Saturday night that may focus more 

widespread or organized convection, otherwise chances for

showers and storms decrease some for Sunday into next week

though development is still possible mainly in the mountains.



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.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening

may reduce vsbys or cause VRB gusts for most of the sites, then

for overnight into tomorrow morning expect IFR and lower cigs 

to develop across most of the sites as well along with typical 

valley fog and reduced vsby potential for LWB. Winds becoming 

south to southwest under 10 kts during the daytime periods and 

light to calm in the overnight. Scattered showers and storms 

expected again for tomorrow.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 



Forecast persistence through the end of the week and weekend

with moist unstable airmass contributing to daily threat of 

showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and

evening hours. Overnight fog development also expected with

greatest concentration within the mountain valleys.



&&



.HYDROLOGY...

There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall the next several

days. Repeated chances of showers and thunderstorms amidst a 

moist air mass will persist the remainder of this week. 

Not a lot of confidence in the details for any particular

location. 



PWAT values expected to remain in the 1.50" to 2.00" 

range. High ambient moisture will produce very efficient 

rainfall rates which could exceed 2-3 inches per hour. Urban 

areas and along mountainous terrain will be particularly 

susceptible to flash flooding.



Antecedent soil conditions are gradually turning wetter across 

the area, but there are still considerable rainfall deficits 

across the Piedmont.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AB

AVIATION...AB/PM

HYDROLOGY...PM