FXUS61 KRNK 051122

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

622 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated.



Adjusted PoPs through the morning based on radar trends.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Showers will be more scattered nature into Friday, with best

chance east of the Blue Ridge.



2) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Friday,

returning to near normal this weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers will be more scattered nature into Friday, with best

chance east of the Blue Ridge.



A frontal boundary pushes slowly east today, reaching the

Piedmont tonight. Low pressure will form along the Florida

Panhandle this evening and lift northeast along the front late

tonight. Models show better coverage of showers tonight into

Friday morning east of the U.S. 29 corridor in VA into the NC

Piedmont. As the wave moves by Friday morning will see drying

trend take shape. Another shortwave and front may bring some

upslope showers Friday night-Sat morning in WV. Could even have

a few snowflakes in the higher ridges of Greenbrier County.





KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through 

Friday, returning to near normal this weekend. 



South winds ahead of the approaching front will maintain mild 

conditions with above normal temperatures today lingering into

Friday. Once the front moves off the coast Friday, cold/dry 

advection will set in for Friday night and continue through the 

weekend. This will promote temperatures returning to near

normal into next week.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Showers will be more scattered today but still enough to have

tempo groups this morning mainly in the mountains. Looking at

MVFR to IFR cigs for most of the day. Could see some

improvement to VFR at BLF/LWB this afternoon before cigs drop 

again tonight. 



Going into overnight Thu night, some models keep low cigs in the

3-9 hundred foot range around while others show fog with higher

cigs. Split the difference but even so, sub-VFR with as low as

IFR expected.



Confidence in the above forecast is moderate.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...



Friday, winds shift to the northwest behind the front as it 

pushes east, with gusts up to 20 knots possible on Saturday for 

all terminals. Drier weather returns for this weekend, with VFR 

expected to continue well into next week with no large systems 

impacting the area.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...PM/WP

AVIATION...SH/WP