FXUS61 KRNK 050639

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

139 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation updated.



Adjusted PoPs through the morning based on radar trends and

removed thunder.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Showers will be more scattered nature into Friday, with best

chance east of the Blue Ridge.



2) Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Friday,

returning to near normal this weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers will be more scattered nature into Friday, with best

chance east of the Blue Ridge.



A frontal boundary pushes slowly east today, reaching the

Piedmont tonight. Low pressure will form along the Florida

Panhandle this evening and lift northeast along the front late

tonight. Models show better coverage of showers tonight into

Friday morning east of the U.S. 29 corridor in VA into the NC

Piedmont. As the wave moves by Friday morning will see drying

trend take shape. Another shortwave and front may bring some

upslope showers Friday night-Sat morning in WV. Could even have

a few snowflakes in the higher ridges of Greenbrier County.





KEY MESSAGE 2: Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through 

Friday, returning to near normal this weekend. 



South winds ahead of the approaching front will maintain mild 

conditions with above normal temperatures today lingering into

Friday. Once the front moves off the coast Friday, cold/dry 

advection will set in for Friday night and continue through the 

weekend. This will promote temperatures returning to near

normal into next week.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Showers will impact most terminals this morning with sub-VFR

cigs/vsbys. Fog will also lower VSBY down to 1-3 miles. 

Technically, dense fog looks less likely at KLWB due to clouds 

cover, but either way conditions will be LIFR due to very low 

stratus. 



Flight conditions remain poor through Thursday morning, and may

see some improvement to MVFR to VFR by Thu afternoon. 



Looking at more widely scattered showers Thursday so left out of

of the tafs for now. Looks like cigs and vsbys may drop again in

the mountains before the end of the taf period.



Confidence in the above forecast is moderate.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...



Sub-VFR flight restrictions will continue into Thursday night 

as a cold front lingers across the area. This will keep rain 

showers in the forecast through Friday along/east of the Blue 

Ridge, with even a few thunderstorms possible at DAN on Friday. 

Winds shift to the northwest behind the front as it pushes east,

with gusts up to 20 knots possible on Saturday for all 

terminals. Drier weather returns for this weekend, with VFR 

expected to continue well into next week with no large systems 

impacting the area.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...PM/WP

AVIATION...SH/WP