FXUS61 KRNK 031736 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 136 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build across the region today with dry weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Little or no additional rain is forecast until next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Generally dry and fair through Independence Day. Stalled boundary remains to the southeast of the forecast area draped across the Carolinas. Surface high pressure will gradually build in through tonight and tomorrow as an upper wave over New England depart east. Mostly sunny skies with just some passing CU through the afternoon and early evening. May have just enough lift for a few light showers across the Piedmont region, so have added in a brief period of showers/drizzle through early evening. Otherwise expecting dry conditions through tonight and tomorrow as high pressure continues to build overhead. Temperatures near normal with lower dew points should provide a problem free Independence Day in the weather department. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 130 PM EDT Thursday... Key Message: 1) Relatively quiet weather period thanks to wedged surface high A large surface high pressure system will make its way eastward and into the Atlantic the next few days. A portion of this system will get wedged into the mountains and keep skies mostly clear for a majority of the forecast area. This wedged system will also be squished between an approaching frontal boundary and a storm disturbance off eastern Florida. The Floridian disturbance currently only has a 60% chance of developing into a tropical storm within the next 7 days. Whether it forms or not, its projected path is expected to be along the Carolina coast. Potential impacts to our region are forecast to be trivial. The system may be close enough to cause easterly wind gusts up to 15 mph in the North Carolina counties and Southside Virginia and provide a brief chance of precipitation for this region. The system could still travel more towards the ocean or inland so confidence in this part of the forecast will grow as we head into the weekend. Temperatures will continue to be on the warmer side with regional highs in the 80s, except at higher elevations. There is a bit of model disagreement on how dew points will fluctuate, particularly due to the surface high's wedge, but a safe bet is values will be in the 60s, generally speaking. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Hot and muggy next week 2) Multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms next week The disturbance off of Florida is expected to be absorbed by the main 500mb flow and head northeast early next week. A frontal system looks to stall in the area but it is still not entirely clear whether it passes through or retreats north later next week. This boundary layer, combined with plenty of surface heating and moisture, will provide opportunity for daily afternoon convective thunderstorms. High temperatures may reach into the 80s and 90s and the heat index could potentially get to 100 for the Piedmont region around Monday and Tuesday. Dew points are expected to climb back up and bring muggy conditions with values in the 60s and lower 70s. An upper level ridge will form over Florida mid-next week and zonal winds aloft will bring shortwaves towards the Mid-Atlantic. Model guidance suggests a more potent shortwave to arrive late next week when widespread precipitation would be the highest. The Storm Prediction Center mentioned a potential MCS forming across the Great Plains but there is too much uncertainty on the upper level pattern to know where this system could go if it forms. This will be monitored in future forecasts. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Thursday... May see fog at LWB again early Friday morning, with perhaps some patchy fog here and there in other river valleys as well. Outside of that, expecting mostly sunny skies and widespread VFR. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog through early next week. May see some isolated to scattered storms Sunday into Monday but low confidence on aviation terminal impacts. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BMG NEAR TERM...BMG SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...CG AVIATION...BMG