FXUS61 KRNK 021833 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 133 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... All previous headlines have been removed and no new headlines are planned for this update. Light wintry precipitation still a possibility Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Light snow accumulations possible. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light wintry precipitation possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. 2) A chance for wintry precipitation again on Friday, but mainly confined to the western mountains. 3) A midweek warmup closer to normal is short-lived, as colder air returns late week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Light wintry precipitation possible Tuesday night and Wednesday. Upper pattern will amplify through the week, with a trough digging south towards the Gulf states. A weak shortwave embedded within the longwave flow will result in weak surface low pressure developing across the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday. This low will quickly move east, with light precipitation beginning to enter our region by late Tuesday. Temperatures at the surface will be rather marginal as a result of WSW flow in advance of the system. This will likely begin as light rain for most, but change to snow as colder air filters in late Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. Highest confidence in snow will be over the mountains, with mostly just light rain east of the mountains. Only light accumulations are possible, most seeing less than an inch. KEY MESSAGE 2: A chance for wintry precipitation again on Friday, but mainly confined to the western mountains. Heading into the end of the week, a clipper system will move through the Great Lakes and into the northern Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moisture from the Great Lakes will be limited as ice coverage of the Lakes is nearly 50%, well above the historical average for this time of the winter. Nevertheless, there will still be enough for increasing precipitation chances west of the Blue Ridge Friday. At this time, looks to start as mainly snow, but with some rain mixing in as temperatures warm above freezing in some areas. Confidence is low in how much of the area sees snow vs how much sees rain, given the dependence on temperatures, but more confident p-type will be either rain or snow. This system moves through the area quickly, and precipitation will come to an end for the area by Saturday morning. KEY MESSAGE 3: A midweek warmup closer to normal is short-lived, as colder air returns late week into the weekend. Temperatures will continue to be between 5 to as much as 20 degrees below normal this week, as the synoptic pattern remains unchanged as large troughs will continue to encompass much of the Eastern CONUS. Subsequent systems and cold fronts will move through the area, with reinforcing shots of cold air into this weekend. While high temperatures will reach into the 30s and 40s several days, overnight lows will be much colder. Teens are expected area-wide most mornings, aside from Wednesday and Saturday mornings that will be in the 20s for much of the area due to increased cloud cover. The coldest mornings are expected to be Thursday and Sunday, due to post FROPA CAA. Clear skies along with the snow/ice will still be on the ground, allowing for efficient radiational cooling to occur and temperatures to fall into the single digits and teens. Wind chills will not be as dangerously cold as this past weekend, but are still expected to be quite cold, in the single digits west of the Blue Ridge Saturday and Sunday mornings. Temperatures could change depending on how much snow/ice melts this week, but the cold pattern will continue, with no significant pattern changes expected through at least mid month. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast through this evening with some mid and high clouds gradually increasing through the evening. Stratus develops for the mountains, with BLF and LWB possibly reaching MVFR. Winds through the TAF period will remain generally westerly, with some variation to WNW or SSW around 5-10 knots, with the occasional gust to 15 to 20 kts. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A series of disturbances will track east Tuesday night through Friday bringing areas sub-VFR and light precipitation to the region. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMG/JCB AVIATION...BMG