FXUS61 KRLX 271727 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 127 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers are possible across southern portions of the area through Tuesday, but a larger, stronger system could bring widespread beneficial rain Tuesday night through Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 121 PM Monday... An upper-level area of low pressure is exiting the Mississippi Valley and moving eastward. A wide swath of rain and overcast clouds can be seen moving across the southern Appalachians. Across our area, clouds will remain widespread along and south of I-64 today with some rain expected late today across the far south. North of I-64 will be partly to mostly sunny skies. Areas that see more sunshine today will likely reach the middle 60s for afternoon highs, while areas stuck in the clouds may see temperatures better than the 50s this afternoon. This upper-level system will begin to transfer its energy off the southeast coast Tuesday, but some lingering energy aloft will bring at least small chances of rain across the area, with the best chances across the south and the east. Skies will remain overcast over the south and east, while some breaks of sun can be expected over northern West Virginia and parts of southeast Ohio. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 121 PM Monday... A much more potent upper-level low will drop southward from the northern plains to the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a higher, more prolonged chance of rain across the entire coverage area. Rain chances will be highest Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as the core of the upper-level low tracks through the Appalachians. Early indications from forecast models suggest that anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible Tuesday night through Thursday. Much of the state remains in some kind of drought category, especially the eastern part of the state. This rain will be largely beneficial to the current drought situation. Daytime temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday will remain well below normal with highs in the upper 40s across the mountains and the 50s in the lowlands. Average highs for this time of year are typically the upper 50s in the mountains and the lower to middle 60s in the lowlands. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 121 PM Monday... The aforementioned low pressure system will exit into the mid- Atlantic and northeast Friday with a west-northwest flow across our area. This will leave us with plenty of clouds and well-below normal daytime temperatures heading into the weekend. Continued waves of energy traversing around the base of the upper-level trough will keep showers in the forecast throughout the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 125 PM Monday... VFR conditions are largely expected to continue the rest of today, but temporary MVFR ceilings or visibility may be possible in any showers that pass through the southern terminals (KHTS, KCRW, KBKW). Overnight, MVFR low stratus may impact some of the terminals along with intermittent showers. The terminal most likely to affected by low ceilings is KBKW. East-southeasterly winds will remain breezy through the TAF period. Overnight, LLWS will be possible at KEKN due to stronger winds aloft. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions may vary during times of showers. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITHMODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... IFR conditions possible in rain Tuesday night through Thursday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...26