FXUS61 KRLX 221319 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 919 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 917 AM update... Lowered dew points across the area based on latest trends. Thinking there will be a slower rise in dew points than was previously forecast across the area. Not thinking fire danger will be a major concern as we should moisten up with time, however, with the gusty winds expected to pick up, will not be surprised to see a period of brush fire activity today. Will monitor conditions, and issue any fire related products...i.e. special weather statements if needed. Aviation Update. 211 AM Update... Confidence in showers and storms remains highest as a front nears this evening into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A front brings showers and storms later today into tonight, with some severe storms possible this evening. Much cooler and breezy behind the front on Monday. - 2) Becoming unsettled again with another front crossing the area late this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Breezy conditions are expected to develop out ahead of a cold front, with 20 to 30 mph gusts likely mixing down to the surface during the day today. Strong shear and moderate instability should materialize as daytime heating buoys temperatures up into the 80s across much of the area this afternoon; however, limited moisture may initially suppress convective development. Moisture increases as the front nears later today, allowing showers and storms to spread southeast across the area this evening into tonight. Some strong to severe storms may be possible during the evening, with greatest confidence in severe weather spanning southeast Ohio, northeast KY, and parts of western and northern WV. Severe potential then decreases to the southeast as instability is expected to gradually wane after sundown. Following the departure of the front, precipitation comes to an end, temperatures cool to near normal, and winds remain gusty on Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled conditions are expected to return during the second half of the week as a couple of shortwaves pass by and then a system steers a front across the area late in the week. Although models are coming into better agreement, there is still some uncertainty regarding the timing of these late week features. && .AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR will eventually be interrupted as a front brings showers and storms into the area this evening into tonight. Any heavier showers or storms may prompt periods of IFR, then sub-VFR conditions linger in low ceilings behind the front through the end of the TAF period. Southwest flow strengthens during the day, with 15 to 25 KT gusts expected to develop across the area. Locally stronger gusts may occur in storms. Winds shift to northerly behind the front and remain breezy into Monday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of rain and storms may vary from the forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H HH H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z MONDAY... Brief IFR conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms tonight into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SL/20 AVIATION...20