FXUS61 KRLX 220611 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 211 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Confidence in showers and storms remains highest as a front nears this evening into tonight. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A front brings showers and storms later today into tonight, with some severe storms possible this evening. Much cooler and breezy behind the front on Monday. - 2) Becoming unsettled again with another front crossing the area late this week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Breezy conditions are expected to develop out ahead of a cold front, with 20 to 30 mph gusts likely mixing down to the surface during the day today. Strong shear and moderate instability should materialize as daytime heating buoys temperatures up into the 80s across much of the area this afternoon; however, limited moisture may initially suppress convective development. Moisture increases as the front nears later today, allowing showers and storms to spread southeast across the area this evening into tonight. Some strong to severe storms may be possible during the evening, with greatest confidence in severe weather spanning southeast Ohio, northeast KY, and parts of western and northern WV. Severe potential then decreases to the southeast as instability is expected to gradually wane after sundown. Following the departure of the front, precipitation comes to an end, temperatures cool to near normal, and winds remain gusty on Monday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled conditions are expected to return during the second half of the week as a couple of shortwaves pass by and then a system steers a front across the area late in the week. Although models are coming into better agreement, there is still some uncertainty regarding the timing of these late week features. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected to persist into the afternoon, then MVFR or worse restrictions may develop as showers and storms accompany a front across the area this evening into tonight. Calm to light flow will gradually strengthen towards daybreak, with 15 to 25 kt gusts then expected to develop during the day. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 03/22/26 UTC 1HRLY 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 EDT 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... Brief IFR conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms tonight into Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...20