FXUS61 KRLX 070944 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 544 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 540 AM updated aviation. No significant changes from previous forecast thinking. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Becoming drier today as system and cold front move off to the east 2) Cooler and drier for Friday, with additional disturbances expected Friday night into Saturday, and several more to round out the extended. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... The area will gradually dry out today, as the cold front, and wave of low pressure to our south, continue to move out of the area. Today will be cool, with the possibility of a stray shower not completely out of the question, as we remain under the influence of the upper trough. Patchy frost will be possible tonight, mainly across the mountains, and will largely depend on how calm winds can go. Otherwise, high pressure gradually building into the region will result in mainly dry conditions for Friday. It will be relatively short lived however, as another low pressure system moves through the area, with a return of showers and isolated storms by Saturday. KEY MESSAGE 2... Forecast becomes more uncertain from Sunday onward, with the potential for several disturbances to affect the region, along with continued cool conditions under the influence of an upper trough. && .AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Areas of MVFR and local IFR continues to linger, mainly south and east of the Ohio River. Conditions should generally improve to VFR area wide by 16-18Z. Northwesterly winds, generally light, but occasional gusts in the teens to lower 20kt range generally 18Z to 23Z. Overnight, generally VFR conditions expected, although patchy MVFR/IFR river valley fog may be possible Friday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Improvements to VFR Thursday may be faster or slower than expected. River valley fog may form late tonight, resulting in restrictions. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M L L H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H M H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M L L H H M H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY L M H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY L L M H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... Widespread IFR not anticipated. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SL AVIATION...SL