FXUS61 KRLX 051835 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 235 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No major changes to the forecast. Updated aviation forecast discussion for ~18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Active pattern brings afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms daily into next week. Severe weather threat remains low, but localized to isolated flash flooding is possible each day. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A stationary front remains draped across the area this afternoon with an upper-low anchoring it down and producing showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon today. These showers and storms will be relatively slow in speed, moving from south to north. Severe weather is not anticipated, but isolated instances of damaging wind gusts could be possible in more organized cells, mostly a concern for today and Thursday. The low chance for severe weather looks promising into next week, though would still be mindful of isolated damaging wind gusts mostly across the mountains with the upslope potential. Because of this, would not be surprised to see a marginal risk (level 1/5) from SPC being introduced tomorrow with soundings suggesting possible localized wet microburst potential, especially across the mountains and Ohio River Valley. The main concern today, and really the next few days, will be localized to isolated flash flooding from heavy downpours and slow/training storms. A moisture gradient moves through today into tomorrow with PWATs increasing to between 1.75" and 2.25". There is a marginal risk (level 1/4) for excessive rainfall across our area virtually everyday through the weekend. Current WPC guidance shows 0.50" and 1.50" of rainfall being picked up across the area through Friday night. Locally higher amounts close to 2 inches is possible across the mountains and Ohio River Valley. Higher amounts are likely to occur with training thunderstorms and showers, however confidence is lower as to where these will occur. That said, a flood watch is not anticipated at this time due to the more localized threat expected. This trend of daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms will hold through the weekend into next week, until a cold front swings through mid week. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SCT to BKN CU decks between 2,000 and 6,000 feet today signifying some convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms are likely through the afternoon and evening, especially across the Ohio River Valley(HTS and PKB) and the mountains(BKW and EKN). Due to the scattered and low confidence in timing of this activity, TEMPO groups and VCTS are in TAFs at all sites through the afternoon. Guidance shows activity dwindling after sundown tonight, between ~00z and ~02z. Kept VCTS in the TAFs through about ~04-06z to account for any persistent convection. Dense valley fog is expected tonight across the river valleys and where any rain is received tonight. IFR or lower conditions are expected for many sites tonight, especially CRW and EKN. Light and variable flow is today will go calm again tonight. Winds will vary with any thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers and storms today will likely vary. Restrictions associated with fog tonight may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 16 17 18 1920 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 EDT 1HRLY 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z THURSDAY... Brief IFR restrictions are possible with daily showers and thunderstorms Thursday onward, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours. IFR could also occur in river valley fog during the early morning hours this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...LTC AVIATION...LTC