FXUS61 KRLX 031006 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 506 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Issued a Winter Weather Advisory a row of counties further south where the criteria is 2 inches. Because the ground is already frozen, believe that those counties will be mostly snow and even with temperatures possibly in the mid 30s, the snow should immediately stick to the frozen ground/existing snow. Meso models are starting to agree on an enhanced band of precipitation across these same counties. Therefore have opened up the top end of the range for accumulations to 4 inches in the advisory area (1-4 inches). && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) A clipper brings snow and mixed precipitation to the area today into tonight. This could affect the evening commute in many areas. - 2) A cold front Friday brings precipitation and more arctic air for next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A clipper will move across the area today and tonight. Southern portions of the area could see some rain at times while northern West Virginia and southeast Ohio should remain mainly snow. Because the ground is already frozen/has snow cover, believe that areas getting mostly snow with temperatures in the mid 30s will still stick immediately with no melting. Meso models are also starting to agree on an enhanced band of precipitation central West Virginia and southern Ohio. Therefore, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for a row of counties further south where the criteria is 2 inches. In addition, have opened up the top end of the range for accumulations to 4 inches in the advisory area (1-4 inches). Confidence in snow amounts if high across southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia. However, confidence is lower further south. KEY MESSAGE 2... An strong cold front will push through the region on Friday. This will bring a mix of precipitation, changing to snow in the colder air behind the front. Models are in disagreement with the intensity of the cold air behind the front for the weekend. In general, the models have backed off some, keeping the coldest of the arctic air to our northeast. Even so, the highest elevations of the northern West Virginia mountains could need some cold weather headlines during the nighttime hours. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings can be expected this morning. Snow will then move into the area later this morning or this afternoon, producing IFR conditions. The snow will taper off Tuesday night. This will allow for some improvements over southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, and western West Virginia. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Onset time of precipitation today could vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 02/03/26 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EST 1HRLY 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H M H M HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H M H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY... IFR conditions possible Friday and Friday night with snow. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for WVZ007>010-016>019-029. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ011-020-030>032-039-040-522-523-525-526. OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ075-076-083>087. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for KYZ101. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...RPY AVIATION...RPY