FXUS61 KRLX 020510

AFDRLX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston WV

1210 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Uncertainty in the amount of milder air and how far north it 

makes it with a clipper Tuesday and Tuesday night remains, 

which in turn effects the type of precipitation and the amount 

of snow accumulation



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Arctic air persists with a Wind Chill Advisory this morning

  for higher elevations of the West Virginia mountains. 



- 2) A clipper brings snow Tuesday into Tuesday night. 



- 3) A cold front Friday brings precipitation and more arctic

  air for next weekend. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...



Wind persisting on the higher ridges of the West Virginia

mountains this morning will combine with temperatures in the 

single digits to create wind chills of -10 to -18 degrees. Will

continue with a Cold Weather Advisory in this area for this

morning. 



Temperatures this morning will generally bottom out in the

single digits, with some locations going below zero. 





KEY MESSAGE 2...



Models show a clipper moving across the area Tuesday and Tuesday

night. There is still some uncertainty in the amount of milder

air and how far north it makes it, which in turn effects the 

type of precipitation and the amount of snow accumulation. This 

leads to a high confidence forecast across central Ohio and 

northern West Virginia where the precipitation should remain 

all snow, but a lower confidence forecast further south. Being a

clipper, thinking that areas that stay all snow would see 1 to 

3 inches. 





KEY MESSAGE 3...



An strong cold front will push through the region on Friday.

This will bring a mix of precipitation, changing to snow in the

colder air behind the front. Most models are showing that the 

arctic air mass moves back into our region behind this front, 

although a few models do show the coldest air remaining 

northeast of our region. If we do go back into the arctic air,

cold weather headlines may be needed for portions of the area

next weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Some MVFR clouds can be expected early this morning along the

eastern slopes of the northern West Virginia mountains. 

Otherwise, expect VFR conditions this morning. 



VFR conditions will gradually become MVFR this afternoon and

evening. 



FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

     

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.



ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR clouds dissipating in the

northern West Virginia mountains could vary. 



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY

OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:

H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.

L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.



DATE                                        MON 02/02/26

UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16

EST 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11

CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H



AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...

IFR conditions possible Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday in snow.



&&



.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for WVZ516-518-

     520>526.

OH...None.

KY...None.

VA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...RPY

AVIATION...RPY