FXUS61 KPHI 051134 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 634 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated the Aviation section with the 12Z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. A slow moving cold front approaches and moves through the area on Friday, bringing the potential for heavy rain to portions of the area beginning on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...A slow moving cold front approaches and moves through the area on Friday, bringing the potential for heavy rain to portions of the area beginning on Thursday. Upper level troughing pivoting over the Great Lakes region slowly tracks eastward through Friday, before the upper low tracks overhead on Saturday. At the surface, this translates a slow moving cold front approaching the region on Thursday, before slowly moving overhead and stalling nearby through Friday. As the front approaches from the west, precipitation chances increase for those in the western portions of the forecast area throughout the day on Thursday. Those along and east of the metros will stay primarily dry with 30% chance of precipitation or less. Precipitation chances increase Thursday night into Friday as the cold front approaches and moisture increases. Beneficial rainfall is expected with REFS ensembles showing a 24 hour precipitation total swath stretching from southern Delaware across the New Jersey coast of 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts up to 2 to 3 inches possible. Further west, precipitation totals range from a trace to an inch. Exactly where the heaviest precipitation totals line up remains uncertain and will be dependent on where the front stalls. The cold front departs offshore on Saturday, with mostly dry conditions returning to the forecast. A spotty shower cannot be fully ruled out over the weekend with the upper low lingering across the Northeast. High temperatures will be noticeably cooler with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 40s for most. Temperatures continue cooling Sunday into early next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s and overnight lows in the 30s for most (40s metro areas). && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Thursday...Primarily MVFR with periods of low ceilings and chances for showers. Wind gusts 15 to 20 knots are expected across the terminals Thursday morning and into the afternoon, before diminishing after sunset. KACY and KMIV look to remain drier and primarily VFR. Low confidence. Thursday night...MVFR ceilings with the potential for IFR ceilings after 04-06Z. Lowering visibilities with increasing showers and a possible TSRA. SW winds around 5 kts, shifting to WNW late. Low confidence. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Precipitation brings periods of sub- VFR conditions through Friday night. Saturday through Saturday night...Mainly VFR with dry conditions are expected as high pressure builds in over the terminals. West winds around 10 to 15 kts. Sunday through Monday...VFR and dry conditions are expected. W to WNW winds blowing 10 knots with gusts between 15 and 20 knots. && .MARINE... SCA conditions develop Thursday evening into Thursday night with seas building 3 to 5 feet. Southerly winds increase to 15-20 kts with a few gusts near 25 kts. Outlook... Friday through Friday night...Seas fall below SCA criteria. Westerly winds around 10-15 kts. Saturday through Monday...SCA conditions possible. W to WNW winds around 15-20 kts with gusts near 25 kts. Seas build to 3 to 5 feet. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisoryfrom 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST Friday for ANZ450>455. && $$ DISCUSSION...MJL/WFO PHI AVIATION...AKL/MJL/WFO PHI MARINE...MJL/WFO PHI