FXUS61 KPBZ 220733 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 333 AM EDT Sun Mar 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion has been updated. Confidence still remains elevated for strong to severe storms after 2pm today with a passing cold front. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe thunderstorms ahead of a crossing cold front with a main threat for large hail and damaging wind. There is a lesser chance for a tornado threat. Training thunderstorms could cause some locally higher totals. 2) Mostly quiet weather Monday through Wednesday, with the next shower and thunderstorm chance around Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm airmass has entered the region. A cold frontal passage is forecast to occur during the late afternoon and evening hours which will serve as a focus for thunderstorms. High temperatures into the mid to upper 70s south of US-422, and even in the 80s south of I-70 and the Mason-Dixon Line. During the afternoon, increased moisture and dewpoints into the mid to upper 50s will help push surface-based CAPE into the 750 to 1500 J/kg range. Much of this instability lies in the favorable -10C to -30C layer for hail growth, with mid-level lapse rates of 7C to 7.5C present as well. There is favorable 0-6km vertical wind shear of 45 to 55 knots ahead of the front. These parameters would be supportive of supercell structures. Convective initiation is forecast to occur between 2 PM to 5 PM, starting to the north. As those showers/storms move south, they will encounter the more favorable environment (described above) between 4 PM and 8 PM and become more severe in nature. This most likely to occur near Pittsburgh and south. All severe threats remain in play, although large hail and damaging wind chances will dominate, with a lesser but still present tornado threat. We will also need to monitor the potential of training thunderstorms, as mean storm motion should be fairly parallel to the crossing cold front. Thus, isolated heavy rainfall totals and localized water issues cannot be ruled out. Chances for exceeding 1.5 inches are greatest (40%-45%) in the Laurel Highlands. Storm intensity should begin to ease by the mid to late evening with diurnal stabilization, although convection is likely to continue along and ahead of the cold front until it exits the region to our south after midnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... Largely quiet weather follows for the Monday to Wednesday period. In the wake of the Sunday night cold front, high temperatures will be about 10 degrees below-normal on Monday. There is a marginal chance for lake-enhanced shower development due to the northwest flow over the Great Lakes. This could result in isolated lake-enhanced rain and snow showers north of Pittsburgh. Temperatures are likely to moderate near/just above average by Wednesday. The next chance of showers and thunderstorms may arrive Thursday, although ensembles currently differ on timing and strength. Given a warm surge followed by another cold frontal passage during this period, this may represent our next chance for at least isolated severe thunderstorms. Extended machine-learning guidance from CSU and NCAR support this idea. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions will likely prevail throughout the early afternoon. With approaching disturbance over the Great Lakes, low-level wind shear is expected from the west/southwest through day break. Terminals will likely be impacted by showers and storms between 18Z to 00Z with a passing cold front. However, there may be a few stray showers near DUJ/FKL between 15Z to 18Z. Storms could be considered strong to severe and produce hail and damaging wind gusts. In the wake of the front, expected IFR cigs and at least MVFR vis with remnant boundary layer. Restrictions will likely last through Monday morning. Outlook... VFR returns Monday afternoon through Tuesday under building high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CL/Lupo AVIATION...Hefferan