FXUS61 KPBZ 062249 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 649 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Frost Advisory issued for Jefferson, Forest, Clarion, and Venango counties. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry and cool conditions expected until rain chances return later on Friday and then later in the weekend. 2) Frost possible both tonight and Thursday night / Friday morning. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Drier and relatively cool weather is expected as surface high pressure builds in from the west. Chances of rain will then increase late Friday and continue through Saturday morning/early afternoon with a crossing shortwave. After a brief break, a crossing cold front will bring another round of precipitation Sunday afternoon and night. Overall ensemble precipitation probabilities over the entire weekend are 75% for 0.25", 50% for 0.50", and 15% for 1.00", so it shouldn't be a washout. KEY MESSAGE 2... Clearing skies and calm overnight winds with decoupling may result in frost development overnight north and east of Pittsburgh overnight so a Frost Advisory has been issued for Jefferson, Forest, Clarion, and Venango counties. A similar regime will linger Friday morning, with a higher chance of low clouds clearing area-wide. This will correlate to a bit higher chances of a frost, with regions north of Pittsburgh and the higher terrain of PA/WV seeing a 50% to 80% chance of less than 37F, and the rest of the region generally between 10% to 35%. Chances of a freeze are, again, low for now, highest at 10% to 25% for Forest County and eastern Tucker County. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR cigs will continue into the evening at MGW with low level moisture in place behind an exiting cold front. Improvement to VFR is expected later this evening under dry advection. Otherwise, VFR is expected with cigs 5,000-8,000 ft. Partial clearing is expected overnight as surface ridging briefly builds in. Areas that were last to see clearing, and the dry advection, will likely see fog develop. Included IFR/with tempo LIFR at MGW late tonight into Thursday morning. VFR is expected Thursday, with a high based cumulus/stratocu layer developing. A crossing shortwave trough could spark a few showers/sprinkles in the afternoon north of I-70, so included a tempo mention for this. NW wind will diminish this evening, before increasing again on Thursday with gusts up to 20kt. Outlook... Periods of rain and restrictions are expected late Friday into early Saturday, and again Saturday night into Sunday, as shortwaves rotate through a broad upper trough across much of the eastern CONUS. General VFR is expected in between these systems. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ008-009- 015-016. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Milcarek/88 AVIATION...WM