FXUS61 KPBZ 061758

AFDPBZ



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA

158 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Frost Advisory issued for Jefferson, Forest, Clarion, and

Venango counties.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Dry and cool conditions expected until rain chances return

later on Friday and then later in the weekend.



2) Frost possible both tonight and Thursday night / Friday 

morning.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1... 



Drier and relatively cool weather is expected as surface high 

pressure builds in from the west. Chances of rain will then increase

late Friday and continue through Saturday morning/early

afternoon with a crossing shortwave. After a brief break, a

crossing cold front will bring another round of precipitation

Sunday afternoon and night. Overall ensemble precipitation 

probabilities over the entire weekend are 75% for 0.25", 50% for

0.50", and 15% for 1.00", so it shouldn't be a washout.





KEY MESSAGE 2... 

Clearing skies and calm overnight winds with decoupling may

result in frost development overnight north and east of

Pittsburgh overnight so a Frost Advisory has been issued for 

Jefferson, Forest, Clarion, and Venango counties.





A similar regime will linger Friday morning, with a higher 

chance of low clouds clearing area-wide. This will correlate to

a bit higher chances of a frost, with regions north of 

Pittsburgh and the higher terrain of PA/WV seeing a 50% to 80% 

chance of less than 37F, and the rest of the region generally 

between 10% to 35%. Chances of a freeze are, again, low for 

now, highest at 10% to 25% for Forest County and eastern Tucker 

County.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Dry advection and subsidence working from the northwest

continues to erode MVFR to IFR ceilings as this surge reaches  

the southeastern-most sites (KLBE/KMGW) last, delaying their

potential VFR improvement..



Gradual clear of clouds below 5kft is expected this evening,

with cirrus exiting thereafter. This clearing combined with the

potential for more limited dry advection at the surface at

southeastern terminals creates growing potential for areas of

low stratus and/or fog to develop before dawn Thursday. This

setup is better captured by GLAMP statistical guidance versus

hi-resolution models that are likely too bullish in dewpoint

falls. TAFs thus more closely resemble that GLAMP guidance

expecting some fog/stratus at sites like MGW/LBE and, to a

lesser effect, AGC.



Outlook... 

Isolated VFR showers could occur Thursday afternoon across the 

region with peak heating before additional isolated showers 

(and low probability restrictions) develop overnight north of 

I-80. Then, rain and restrictions develop Friday afternoon into 

Saturday, starting a trend of intermittent periods of 

rain/restrictions associated with passing shortwaves within the 

broad Great Lakes troughing.



&&



.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

PA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ008-009-

     015-016.

OH...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...Milcarek/88

AVIATION...Frazier