FXUS61 KPBZ 051142 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 642 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Precipitation chances and timing were adjusted Friday into Saturday. Otherwise, no major changes to the latest forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain ends this morning, then cooler with rain chances returning Friday and Saturday 2) Near average temperatures and mainly dry to start the upcoming week && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough continues to drift northeastward across the Upper Midwest. A shortwave in southwest flow ahead of the low, and a surface cold front, will complete their passage across the Upper Ohio Valley region this morning. Rain associated with this system should taper off from west to east early this morning after the passage of the front. Partial clearing is then expected by this afternoon as low level ridging briefly builds across the region. Clouds will increase again tonight into Friday as a deepening upper low develops in the trough, and tracks southeast across the Great Lakes region. This low is expected to result in periodic rain across the region Friday and Saturday. The latest operational and ensemble guidance are in good agreement that the upper low should be centered across wrn PA Saturday morning. The 850 mb temperatures under the low drop to -1 to -3 deg C, which could result in some snow mixing in with the rain across the higher elevations of Tucker county WV on Saturday, though no accumulation is expected. Otherwise boundary layer temperatures should be warm enough for rain elsewhere. High temperatures should be much cooler on Saturday, with readings around 5 degrees below average. The upper low should exit the region Saturday night, with diminishing rain chances. KEY MESSAGE 2... Model ensembles indicate a broad upper trough should persist across the NE CONUS through the middle of the upcoming week, as surface high pressure builds across the area. This pattern should result in mainly dry and seasonably cool temperatures across the region from Sunday into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Lingering MVFR cigs around and behind the front are expected to lift through the day as the front progresses east and brief shortwave ridging builds in. A brief period of S/SSE winds are expected just ahead of the front until they back more southwest into the afternoon, with some gusts up to 20 to 25kts in mixing. The period of VFR and scattering, will give way to coverage increasing overnight ahead of the next wave with winds lightening some. Broken low VFR is favored for most but a brief period of MVFR couldn't be ruled out at daybreak Friday morning. Outlook... Restriction and rain potential returns later Friday through Saturday with a crossing upper low. NW flow will linger restriction chances into Sunday, before VFR returns by Monday under high pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...WM AVIATION...Milcarek