FXUS61 KPBZ 031143 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 643 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - No major changes have been made to the forecast period && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Winter Weather Advisory for northern West Virginia this afternoon 2) Widespread snow returns Friday 3) Potential for cold weather headlines this weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Early morning flurries/light snow is expected to continue early this morning with a weak shortwave, a few slick spots on the roadways could occur north of Pittsburgh. The real impact begins after 12pm today as a larger system moves into the Ohio River Valley from the west. Northern West Virginia should prep for moderate snow between 2pm and 9pm, with 1 to 3 inches likely. WInter Weather Advisory remains in effect for several counties due to travel impacts with accumulating snow. The ridges of Preston/Tucker County will likely experience the highest snowfall totals due to upsloping. Advancing dry air from the northwest this evening will likely keep snow chances low for areas north of I-70. Snowfall rates will likely diminish around midnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... Confidence is high for widespread snow starting early Friday and lasting through Saturday morning as a system crosses the Great Lakes. The heaviest snowfall rates are expected late Friday morning. Total accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are likely across the region, which will probably trigger formal winter weather headlines in the next 48 hours. Due to high snow-to-liquid ratios (climbing form 15:1 to 20:1 throughout the event), expect a very light and fluffy snow. While most areas will see moderate amounts, eastern Tucker has a 30% chances of seeing Winter Storm criteria (hitting the 6-inch mark). Expect snow to taper off early Saturday morning for most of the region. However, if you are traveling in the higher elevations, watch for continued light snow due to mountain "upslope" effects. A strong cold front will clear out the moisture elsewhere, leaving the region with drier, colder conditions. KEY MESSAGE 3.... In the wake of the cold front early Saturday morning, temperatures will likely fall into the single digits or below zero. The combination of the cold air plus gusty wind (most areas have a 60-80% of max wind gusts exceed 30 mph Friday afternoon into Saturday) results in low wind chill values that could necessitate future Cold Weather Advisory issuance. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES... 1) MVFR ceilings prevail through tonight 2) Light snow and flurried much of today north of MGW 2) Snow and associated IFR visibility along and south of the I-70 corridor this afternoon and evening ------------------------------------------------------------ Any remaining VFR cigs should lower to MVFR through the morning as a shortwave trough approaches. Light snow and flurries should also persist through the day with moisture in the dendritic layer. A surface wave is expected to cross the Lower Ohio Valley region this afternoon and evening. Some jet enhanced ascent on the northern side of this wave should result in a swath of more enhanced snow near and south of I 70, with IFR conditions expected at MGW. Currently expect and inch or two of accumulation at MGW this afternoon and evening. Snow should begin to taper off this evening as the shortwave trough axis and surface wave shift east. Outlook... MVFR cigs should continue tonight as the shortwave trough continues to exit the region. VFR is expected Wednesday into Thursday as high pressure builds in. Widespread IFR and snow is expected late Thursday night through Friday evening with a crossing cold front. Ensemble probabilities indicate a 60-90 percent probability of at least 1 inch of snow, with 2-3 inch probabilities from 30 to 70 percent (with the highest probabilities across wrn PA and the ridges.) MVFR cigs could continue into Saturday under cold NW flow. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ012-021-509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan AVIATION...WM