FXUS61 KPBZ 030706 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 206 AM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - No major changes have been made to the forecast period && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Winter Weather Advisory for northern West Virginia this afternoon 2) Widespread snow returns Friday 3) Potential for cold weather headlines this weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Early morning flurries/light snow is expected to continue early this morning with a weak shortwave, a few slick spots on the roadways could occur north of Pittsburgh. The real impact begins after 12pm today as a larger system moves into the Ohio River Valley from the west. Northern West Virginia should prep for moderate snow between 2pm and 9pm, with 1 to 3 inches likely. WInter Weather Advisory remains in effect for several counties due to travel impacts with accumulating snow. The ridges of Preston/Tucker County will likely experience the highest snowfall totals due to upsloping. Advancing dry air from the northwest this evening will likely keep snow chances low for areas north of I-70. Snowfall rates will likely diminish around midnight. KEY MESSAGE 2... Confidence is high for widespread snow starting early Friday and lasting through Saturday morning as a system crosses the Great Lakes. The heaviest snowfall rates are expected late Friday morning. Total accumulations of 1 to 4 inches are likely across the region, which will probably trigger formal winter weather headlines in the next 48 hours. Due to high snow-to-liquid ratios (climbing form 15:1 to 20:1 throughout the event), expect a very light and fluffy snow. While most areas will see moderate amounts, eastern Tucker has a 30% chances of seeing Winter Storm criteria (hitting the 6-inch mark). Expect snow to taper off early Saturday morning for most of the region. However, if you are traveling in the higher elevations, watch for continued light snow due to mountain "upslope" effects. A strong cold front will clear out the moisture elsewhere, leaving the region with drier, colder conditions. KEY MESSAGE 3.... In the wake of the cold front early Saturday morning, temperatures will likely fall into the single digits or below zero. The combination of the cold air plus gusty wind (most areas have a 60-80% of max wind gusts exceed 30 mph Friday afternoon into Saturday) results in low wind chill values that could necessitate future Cold Weather Advisory issuance. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES... 1) MVFR ceilings prevail through Tuesday. 2) Snow and associated visibility restrictions possible mainly along and south of the I-70 corridor Tuesday afternoon and evening. ------------------------------------------------------------ MVFR ceilings are settling into the area from west to east to start the TAF period. Along the leading edge of these lower ceilings, a band of light snow showers is bringing a short period of MVFR/IFR visibilities as well, though this should move out of the area to the east within the next hour or two. MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail through the period as low pressure passes south of the area. Snow chances associated with the low will remain mainly near and south of I-70, primarily impacting MGW. The best chance for persistent snow and restrictions will be at MGW during afternoon hours on Tuesday. As with the prior package, this is reflected in TAFs with prevailing snow mentioned at MGW and PROB30s elsewhere except FKL/DUJ where probabilities are too low to warrant any mention. Winds will remain light and generally out of the southwest, becoming northwesterly near 00z Wednesday. Outlook... VFR should return Thursday under a ridge of high pressure. Widespread snow and restrictions are expected to return Friday with a crossing cold front. Snow chances will diminish Friday into Saturday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Wednesday for WVZ012-021-509>514. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan AVIATION...Cermak/Rackley