FXUS61 KPBZ 020628 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 128 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Borderline Advisory snow for the ridges of West Virginia Tuesday - Winter weather headlines likely on Friday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold Weather Advisory in effect for eastern Tucker County, WV through 11AM today. 2) Snow chances Tuesday south of Pittsburgh 3) Prolonged cold conditions and winter weather impacts on Friday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A Cold Weather Advisory is still in effect for eastern Tucker County until 11AM today, with wind chill values already measuring between -10 to -20 degrees as of 1AM this morning. Other areas should anticipate wind chill values from the single digits to -10 degrees. No further cold weather headlines are expected this morning. KEY MESSAGE 2... Snow is increasingly likely to affect areas south of Pittsburgh from Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning. This is due to a low- pressure system developing over the Great Plains and venturing into southern West Virginia. Expect hazardous travel conditions Tuesday night into early Wednesday along I-68, with snowfall rates potentially ranging from 0.3 to 0.6 inches per hour. Current totals along West Virginia ridges are forecast at 2-3 inches. A Winter Weather Advisory may be issued for Tucker County in the next forecast update as new high- resolution data becomes available. KEY MESSAGE 3... The forecast strongly indicates that extended cold weather will persist through mid-February across the region. This is due to a persistent, strong high-pressure ridge over the West Coast causing a low-pressure trough towards the Great Lakes and East Coast. Consequently, high temperatures in the Ohio River Valley are expected to remain below freezing for the next several days. The likelihood of minor winter weather impacts developing on Friday is increasing, driven by a passing trough and associated surface low over the Great Lakes. The NBM shows a high probability (over 70%) for at least one inch of snow across the entire region. The chance for three inches or more ranges between 20-70%, which may lead to a Winter Weather Advisory being issued mid-week. These higher snowfall totals are most likely along the ridges. Additionally, the potential for a Winter Storm Watch/Warning (+6") is elevated in the ridges of of Tucker County. Regardless of the final snowfall amounts, travel impacts are expected throughout the day Friday into early Saturday. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES... 1) VFR, save IFR chances at FKL and DUJ this morning. 2) MVFR/IFR chances increase in light snow chances late Monday. ------------------------------------------------------------ Given cloud cover trends at 06Z, its more likely that the majority of the area will retain clear skies and VFR conditions, save a limited IFR stratus deck that is forecast to pass through FKL and DUJ through approximately 12Z. Mid cloud layers will increase through the day Monday with light winds generally favored out of the south-southwest. Guidance is not bullish on widespread snow late Monday, but given the regime of efficient snow production in the past and ascent in the low-levels through a saturated layer into mixed-phase clouds, it seems more likely than models might allude of light snow in the late afternoon through overnight. Chances of MVFR spread from west to east from 18Z to roughly 02Z. Roughly a 40% to 70% chance of IFR cigs fill in shortly after with higher chances of snow. Snow is most likely to produce the highest cig falls to the north and west of PIT, decreasing in intensity as it spreads to the east, with a large spread in potential vis from 1/4SM to 6SM; opted to takevis falls to 2SM for now, closer to the 50th percentile of guidance. Some lifting is possible, along with a decrease in snowfall intensity by daybreak, but the re still at least a 75% of at least MVFR by daybreak Tuesday. Outlook... Mainly cig restrictions are likely on Tuesday with another crossing shortwave trough. A surface wave tracking across the Lower Ohio Valley region could also spread some snow across areas south of PIT. VFR should return Thursday under a ridge of high pressure. Widespread snow and restrictions are expected Friday with a crossing cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for WVZ514. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hefferan AVIATION...WM/Milcarek