FXUS61 KPBZ 020231 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 931 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Potential for winter weather headlines on Friday && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cold Weather Advisory for eastern Tucker County, WV through Monday morning; additional headlines for cold temperatures may be needed tonight 2) Snow chances Tuesday 3) Prolonged cold conditions and winter weather impacts on Friday && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... Shortwave ridging/subsidence has kept skies clear so far tonight. While there were concerns about this lending to rapidly falling temperatures and the potential expansion of the Cold Weather Advisory, so far, temperatures are falling as forecast and in line with NBM guidance. Some modest warm advection may be just enough to hold temperatures up despite the lack of clouds. Adjustments to temperatures accounting for the colder hi res guidance still generally keep apparent temperatures just at or warmer than minus 10. So at this juncture, will continue with the Cold Weather Advisory solely for eastern Tucker County where the confidence in minus 10 or colder wind chill temperatures are greatest. KEY MESSAGE 2... Expect a new weather system to form over the Great Plains early Tuesday, tracking across the region through late Tuesday and into Wednesday. The system's path, influenced by a shortwave trough over the Midwest, suggests only minor impacts for areas south of I-70. Northern West Virginia around the I-68 corridor could see a light accumulation of 0.5 to 1 inch of snow. Given these minimal expected impacts, the chance of a Winter Weather Advisory remains low (under 15%). KEY MESSAGE 3... The forecast strongly indicates that extended cold weather will persist through mid-February across the region. This is due to a persistent, strong high-pressure ridge over the West Coast causing a low-pressure trough towards the Great Lakes and East Coast. Consequently, high temperatures in the Ohio River Valley are expected to remain below freezing for the next several days. The likelihood of minor winter weather impacts developing on Friday is increasing, driven by a passing trough and associated surface low over the Great Lakes. The NBM shows a high probability (over 70%) for at least one inch of snow across the entire region. The chance for three inches or more ranges between 20-70%, which may lead to a Winter Weather Advisory being issued mid-week. These higher snowfall totals are most likely along the ridges. Additionally, the potential for a Winter Storm Watch/Warning (+6") is elevated in the ridges of of Tucker County. Regardless of the final snowfall amounts, travel impacts are expected throughout the day Friday into early Saturday. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... KEY MESSAGES... 1) VFR through at least this evening 2) Uncertainty regarding an MVFR stratocu layer development Monday morning 3) MVFR in light snow late Monday/Monday night ------------------------------------------------------------ VFR is expected into tonight under a building low level ridge. Some uncertainty exists overnight on the development of an MVFR stratocu layer. At this time, it appears the models are too aggressive in the development of this layer, given the building low level ridging. Models were slow earlier today clearing low level clouds as well. For now, included a sct015 for most airports overnight to indicate some potential at a stratocu layer, though was not confident that this will develop. Mid level clouds are expected to increase Monday ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. This trough is expected to bring MVFR cigs from W-E Monday afternoon, with some flurries also possible. Outlook... MVFR is expected Monday night as the initial shortwave trough crosses the region. Mainly cig restrictions are likely on Tuesday with another crossing shortwave trough. A surface wave tracking across the Lower Ohio Valley region could also spread some snow across areas south of PIT. VFR should return Thursday under a ridge of high pressure. Widespread snow and restrictions are expected Friday with a crossing cold front. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for WVZ514. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cermak/Hefferan/34 AVIATION...WM