FXUS61 KOKX 021722 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1222 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No notable changes to the forecast have been made. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry and cold thru Thursday. 2) An arctic front will bring a chance for light snow Friday and another shot of frigid air for the weekend. 3) Brief minor tidal flooding for this morning's high tide cycle for a few areas. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold this week with temps generally remaining blw freezing. No advisories for temps will be needed thru the day on Fri. There could be a few flurries or shsn Tue ngt with an upr trof passing thru the area. Worst case scenario would be a dusting in some spots. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pres and the associated arctic front drop down out of Canada and reach the area on Fri. SW flow ahead of the low into the already cold airmass should produce some snow - mainly light. After the passing of the front, shsn possible with steep lapse rates on Sat. The front will usher in frigid temps for the weekend, with wind chills below zero all areas Fri night, then at least 10-20 below for Sat ngt. 45-50kt winds at h85 could produce nwly gusts around wind advy criteria on Sat as well. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Given a continued offshore flow and observed levels falling short of guidance for the past high tide cycle or two, anticipating isolated to scattered instances of flooding thresholds being just met or slightly exceeded with this morning's high tide cycle. Impacts limited to Southern Nassau and Southern Queens where a coastal flood statement remains posted. No flooding concerns thereafter for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR as high pressure gradually builds in from the west through tonight. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt this afternoon. Gusts end early this evening (20-22z). Winds weaken below 10 kt tonight before backing to the W Tuesday morning. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Gusts may be occasional this afternoon. Wind direction may average close to 310 magnetic at times through this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday Afternoon-Tuesday Night: VFR, but a low chance of MVFR and light snow Tuesday night. Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. Friday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of snow. WNW gusts 25-30 kt Friday night. Saturday: VFR. NW winds 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt possible. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... NW winds today gradually decreasing. A SCA remains in effect for all areas, ending first this mrng on the protected waters as winds diminish, then by Tue mrng on the ocean as waves subside. Areas of light freezing spray can be expected today. Winds and seas are modeled to remain blw SCA lvls Tue thru Thu. An arctic front will bring strengthening winds and building seas on Fri, with gales possible Fri ngt thru Sat. Freezing spray could be mdt-hvy at times this weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMC/JC AVIATION...JC/DS MARINE...JMC