FXUS61 KOKX 021217 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 717 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No notable changes to the forecast have been made. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mainly dry and cold thru Thursday. 2) An arctic front will bring a chance for light snow Friday and another shot of frigid air for the weekend. 3) Brief minor tidal flooding for this morning's high tide cycle for a few areas. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold this week with temps generally remaining blw freezing. The Cold Weather Advy remains in effect for this mrng for Orange and Putnam counties, but temps/chills are mrgnl. No advisories for temps will be needed thru the day on Fri. There could be a few flurries or shsn Tue ngt with an upr trof passing thru the area. Worst case scenario would be a dusting in some spots. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pres and the associated arctic front drop down out of Canada and reach the area on Fri. SW flow ahead of the low into the already cold airmass should produce some snow - mainly light. After the passing of the front, shsn possible with steep lapse rates on Sat. The front will usher in frigid temps for the weekend, with wind chills below zero all areas Fri night, then at least 10-20 below for Sat ngt. 45-50kt winds at h85 could produce nwly gusts around wind advy criteria on Sat as well. .KEY MESSAGE 3... Given a continued offshore flow and observed levels falling short of guidance for the past high tide cycle or two, anticipating isolated to scattered instances of flooding thresholds being just met or slightly exceeded with this morning's high tide cycle. Impacts limited to Southern Nassau and Southern Queens where a coastal flood statement remains posted. No flooding concerns thereafter for the rest of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong low pressure well offshore continues to track northeast into the Northern Atlantic today as high pressure gradually builds in from the west. VFR. NNW to NW flow 10-15kt. Gusts around 20kt return after the morning push and end late day/early evening. NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Start time of gusts after the morning push could be off by an hour two, and may be only occasional. Winds prevail north/right of 310 magnetic for most of the TAF period, but could be south/left of it at times from approx 22-03z this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Tuesday-Thursday: VFR, but a low chance of MVFR and light snow Tuesday night. Friday: MVFR or lower with a chance of snow. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... NW winds today gradually decreasing. A SCA remains in effect for all areas, ending first this mrng on the protected waters as winds diminish, then by Tue mrng on the ocean as waves subside. Areas of light freezing spray can be expected today. Winds and seas are modeled to remain blw SCA lvls Tue thru Thu. An arctic front will bring strengthening winds and building seas on Fri, with gales possible Fri ngt thru Sat. Freezing spray could be mdt-hvy at times this weekend. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ067- 068. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ331- 332-335-338-340-345. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$ DISCUSSION...JMC/JC AVIATION...JC MARINE...JMC