FXUS61 KLWX 090118 AFDLWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 918 PM EDT Thu May 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front slowly crosses the mid-Atlantic late this afternoon through Friday morning. High pressure for the weekend and Monday. Then low pressure is expected to move up from the Deep South for mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Ongoing showers and thunderstorms across the region focused in two areas. One associated with a cold front moving south from Pennsylvania across the Mason-Dixon back towards the eastern panhandle of West Virginia. The other area is across central Virginia into southern Maryland. These areas will likely continue to have showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of hours. Some of these area slow moving and could produce locally heavy rain. The metro areas back towards Harrisonburg will likely be dry until the front drops south by about 04Z or so. Through the overnight, showers will continue with embedded thunderstorms. Not much instability, so rain rates will be generally less than one inch per hour, however long duration aspect could result in some small stream flooding as the rain continues through Friday morning as the low moves northeast. Area of greatest concern for isolated flooding with FFG generally below 2" for 6 hours in central and northeast MD. A mid-level trough of low pressure will drop southward into the region and form a coastal low around mid- Atlantic Coast early Friday. This coastal low will move into the vicinity of New York City by Friday evening. Showers and storms persist into Friday before pulling away. That could slow if the coastal low is slower to move out than currently forecast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather and high pressure return later Friday night through the day Saturday. High pressure building in cause our northwest to northerly winds to increase during the afternoon and evening but diminish overnight Saturday. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The long term period will start off dry as high pressure builds overhead before shifting off the New England coast on Monday. Further south, a low pressure system will track northward from the southeast through the Carolina's. As the low pressure system and associated boundaries approach the forecast area, precipitation chances begin increasing southwest to northeast Monday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Tuesday and Wednesday as the low pressure system tracks over the Mid-Atlantic midweek. Temperatures are expected to moderate under high pressure with high temperatures in the 70s Sunday through Tuesday. Those at higher elevations will stay in the 60s. As cloud cover increases, overnight temperatures will gradually warm each night. Sunday night lows will be in the 40s to 50s with overnight lows warming to the 50s and 60s midweek. The warmest day of the long term period will be Wednesday, as high temperatures rise into 70s to low 80s. && .AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR will become IFR CIGS tonight with showers and thunderstorms. Winds will become northwest with gusts around 15-20kts Fri afternoon through Sat morning. VFR conditions are expected on Sunday as high pressure remains in control. As surface high pressure shifts offshore Monday, precipitation chances increase southwest to northeast throughout the afternoon. Sub-VFR conditions are possible during showers and thunderstorms Monday night. && .MARINE... Light winds this afternoon and tonight. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for late Friday through Saturday as coastal low pressure pulls away from our area. Winds are expected to remain below SCA criteria Sunday and Monday as high pressure shifts offshore. Winds shift from northerly on Monday to southeasterly on Tuesday. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CS NEAR TERM...AVS/KLW/CPB SHORT TERM...CS/KLW LONG TERM...AVS AVIATION...AVS/KLW/CPB MARINE...AVS/KLW/CPB