FXUS61 KLWX 051922

AFDLWX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC

322 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

The Flood Watch has been cancelled with most of the activity

moving  into southeast PA. No other changes have been made to 

the forecast with the summer-like pattern continuing. 



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected through

  early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGE...Daily shower and thunderstorm chances are expected

through early next week.



A deep southerly flow will continue around high pressure over 

the Atlantic, ushering plenty of moisture. PWATS will be near or

greater than 2" in the valleys with 1-2" in the mountains, 

which is about 1- 2 SD above climo. A surface trough and 

shortwave energy will trigger scattered showers/thunderstorms, 

but it should not be a washout this afternoon/evening. The main

threat will be brief heavy downpours and gusty winds. However, 

shear is on the lower side, so the probability of severe storms

is lower. If some storms train over the same area, localized 

flash flooding can occur. The pattern does favor the possibility

for training convection (cloud layer winds nearly parallel to 

low-level wind), but the coverage should be isolated. 



A similar pattern will hold on for Thursday and Friday while the 

subtropical jet strengthens to the north and west. Therefore, more 

showers and thunderstorms are likely along with the threat for 

isolated instances of flash flooding and locally damaging wind 

gusts. Hotter conditions may cause relatively steeper low-level 

lapse rates and the wind field strengthens a bit (especially 

Friday). 



A quasi-zonal flow aloft will develop for the weekend into next 

week, bringing more seasonably hot and humid conditions along with 

daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.



&&



.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR conditions are expected most of the time through tonight. A

thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this afternoon/evening with the

best chance around KMRB. 



Winds shift to mainly south to southwesterly for the foreseeable 

future as a Bermuda high pressure system persists across the western 

Atlantic. Daily convective chances each afternoon and evening will 

support convective-driven restrictions. With little change in the 

upcoming pattern, this sort of forecast will likely hold for the 

next several days.





&&



.MARINE...

Small Craft Advisories could be needed for parts of the waters 

at times this week, mainly in the late afternoon to evening. 

Otherwise, winds remain around 10 knots. Daily showers and 

thunderstorms expected each afternoon this week. Special Marine 

Warnings would accompany any of the stronger thunderstorms 

capable of producing frequent lightning and wind gusts over 35 

knots.





&&



.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Anomalies climb late this week in response to return southerly 

flow. Periods of coastal flooding are possible at times of high 

tide at sensitive locations.



&&



.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

DC...None.

MD...None. 

VA...None.

WV...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ533-

     534-543.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BJL/DHOF/KRR

AVIATION...BJL/DHOF/KRR

MARINE...BJL/DHOF/KRR