FXUS61 KILN 270526 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 126 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A few light rain showers will be possible near and south of the Ohio River through Tuesday, but most spots will remain dry until midweek. Near normal temperatures are expected until much cooler air settles in for the second half of the workweek. Widespread rain is expected Wednesday through Thursday before coming to an end by Friday. Additional light rain chances will return by Sunday, with seasonably chilly air lingering for the foreseeable future. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... The midlevel closed low from the south-central plains will drift E through the mid MS Rvr Vly into the TN Vly through today, slowly weakening as it does so. A tight moisture gradient will slowly pivot N into far srn parts of the ILN FA by this evening, with much drier air positioned N of the OH Rvr versus south of the river. A few light SHRA may develop into parts of N KY by this evening amidst sufficient moisture and weak (but persistent) convergence/lift. Even with this being said, expect rainfall amounts to remain generally a tenth of an inch or less where rain does occur. There continues to be some latitudinal variability regarding the positioning of this midlevel system (and the better forcing associated with it), but confidence is fairly high for most (if not all) locales N of the river to remain dry into tonight. Given the tight moisture gradient entrenched across the region, sky conditions will be quite variable again today, with abundant sunshine favored for I-70 and points N, with mostly cloudy skies likely in N KY. This will help temps climb into the lower to mid 60s N of the OH Rvr, with upper 50s to around 60 degrees for much of KY. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/... The midlevel low migrating through the TN Vly will slowly flatten as it pivots to the ESE by Tuesday morning, with a narrow axis of higher PW air and weak convergence being maintained back to the NW stretching through the srn/wrn OH Vly. A few light SHRA or sprinkles will be possible in N KY into the day Tuesday, but once again most spots will be dry through the short term period. Temps tonight will vary quite a bit from N to S, owing to the thick clouds across the S, which will keep temps a bit warmer in the upper 40s. Further to the N, in WC/central OH, some clearer skies will allow for temps to dip into the upper 30s by daybreak Tuesday. Temps rebound to the upper 50s to around 60 degrees on Tuesday area-wide with thick clouds being maintained in N KY through SE/EC IN. Abundant sunshine will prevail in central OH through the daytime Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... An upper level vorticity max ejects out of the Plains into the Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday night. Surface cyclogenesis commences in the lower Mississippi River Valley east of the upper level shortwave trough overnight. The system quickly becomes vertically stacked on Wednesday and slowly drifts northeast toward the Ohio Valley into the middle and end of the work week. Rain chances increase Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon as the stacked low moves into the area from the southwest. Rain chances peak by Wednesday evening and remain elevated through much of the day on Thursday as moisture wraps around the northwest side of the low. The stacked system slowly fills and drifts further northeast of the Ohio Valley on Friday which gradually reduces rain chances by the weekend. Temperatures will be below late October averages. Chilly, unsettled northwesterly flow persists into the weekend. Low end short chances for showers hang on as upper level shortwave troughs pivot through in the broad troughing over the region. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail area-wide through the TAF period, with persistent mid/high clouds lingering near srn sites of KCVG/KLUK. Further to the N, for KDAY/KCMH/KLCK, clearer skies will be maintained through the period. Better/deeper moisture will slowly pivot N into the region toward 12z Tuesday, resulting in thicker/more widespread clouds between 6-8kft for KCVG/KLUK by late in the period. East winds around 7-10kts through mid morning will increase to 10-12kts, with gusts to 15-18kts by this afternoon. ENE winds around 7-10kts are expected past 00z. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR CIGs are likely, with MVFR VSBYs possible, Wednesday through Thursday night. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...