FXUS61 KILN 201841

AFDILN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

241 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Flood watch issued for tonight. 



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) A cold front will move through the area tonight with additional 

showers and thunderstorms along and north of the front that could 

impact portions of the area with heavy rain and flooding



2) Cooler and showery weather will occur into midweek.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGE 1) 



Active weather to continue overnight with the potential for heavy

rain and flooding. A wavy surface frontal boundary is bisecting

ILN/s area. Forcing will increase late in the afternoon into this 

evening as a short wave induces a wave of low pressure along the 

boundary. A modest 20-25 kt low level jet will accompany this wave. 

PWAT values remain anomalously high around 2 inches and the warm 

cloud layer will be deep. This will lead to the potential for heavy 

rain and flooding along and north of the front. HREF is showing the 

potential for 1 to 3 inches stripes of rainfall overnight with LPMM 

indicating that local totals in excess of 4 inches will be possible. 

The exact placement of the heavy rain axis is somewhat uncertain 

with the most favored location along the southern periphery of the 

I-corridor. Have issued a flood watch for potential flash flooding 

overnight and added a buffer of counties north and south due to the 

uncertainty of exact placement. 

 



Along with the flood threat a threat for severe weather exists into

this evening. Moderate instability combined with favorable DCAPE

values may lead to a conditional severe weather threat with some of

the initial storms late this afternoon into this evening. The main

threat is damaging winds. 





KEY MESSAGE 2)



Cooler airmass will settle across the region. A deep mid level trough

digging southeast from the Upper MS Valley will close off as it 

moves across the area midweek. At the surface, an inverted trough 

will extend along the western slopes of the Appalachians. This 

combination will result in showery conditions, particularly across 

eastern counties. For the period Tuesday thru Friday - high

temperatures look to range from the mid/upper 60s north to the lower 

70s south. These readings will be close to 10 degrees below normal. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Active weather to continue overnight with the potential for heavy 

rain and flooding. A wavy surface frontal boundary will slip south of

the area this evening as a wave of low pressure ripples along it. 



As the cold front moves south across the region ceilings will drop

thru MVFR to IFR. Additional showers and thunderstorms behind the 

front will reduce vsbys to IFR at times. IFR ceilings will be slow 

to improve to MVFR late in th e TAF period. 





OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday 

through Tuesday.



&&



.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...Flood Watch from 7 PM EDT this evening through Monday morning for 

     OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.

KY...None.

IN...Flood Watch from 7 PM EDT this evening through Monday morning for 

     INZ050-058-059-066-073-074.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...AR

AVIATION...AR