FXUS61 KILN 091837 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 237 PM EDT Fri May 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the region through the weekend. This will lead to dry conditions and a gradual warming trend. A chance of showers and thunderstorms will return as we head into the work week as an upper level low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Surface high pressure will settle in across our area overnight with the ridge axis overhead by daybreak. This will lead to clear skies and good radiational cooling overnight. As a result, have undercut temperature guidance by several degrees and expect lows to drop into the 35 to 40 degree range across much of the area. Some patchy frost will be possible, especially across eastern portions of our area, where we will go with a frost advisory for later tonight into early Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/... A weak cold front will drop down across the lower Great Lakes through the day on Saturday but wash out as it moves into northern Ohio. High pressure will then begin to reestablish itself across our area heading into Saturday night. With limited moisture, expect mostly sunny/mostly clear skies to prevail Saturday into Saturday night. Temperatures will begin to moderate with highs on Saturday in the low to possibly mid 70s and lows Saturday night in the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A weak upper level ridge oriented nw-se from MN to the Carolina's coast will build between the departing low and a stationary cutoff low over LA. This ridge will promote a dry and slightly warming airmass in the Ohio Valley through Monday. Then, the upper ridge will break down ahead of the low in LA drifting ne and become an open wave at the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers by Tuesday afternoon. A chance of rain enters Monday night as the upper low and lower flow bring in moisture from the south/southeast. This is offset by the e/se flow and its typical drying nature over the CWA. Rain chances increase, particularly along/s of OH River on Tuesday as a decent axis of upper level s/w energy tracks north. The broad upper low reaches sw CWA overnight Tuesday. By daybreak Wed, the low will be over/east of the CWA and bring a brief lull in shower activity overnight that will ramp up on Wed afternoon given daytime insolation. Precip through this time looks to be composed of weak convective elements that strengthen in the late day. Better instability comes in two periods - Tues afternoon in the south and Wed afternoon in nern CWA. Thunder is maximized in the late day/early evening with a significant reduction of deeper convection overnight and early in the day. Ridging builds in from the west for a dry Thurs and quickly passes east overnight. S/w energy on the back side and a cold frontal passage on Friday will bring thunderstorms to the CWA. Temperatures will be mild and slightly above seasonal norms. Highs in the mid-upper 70s through Tue, near 80 Wed, and mid 80s Thu and Fri. Lows upper 50s Sun night, near 60 Mon/Tue, mid 60s Wed and Fri with upper 60s peaking Thurs in a mild warm sector. && .AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure will remain in place across the region tonight into Saturday. This will lead to dry conditions and VFR conditions through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Monday afternoon into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ045-046-055- 056-064-065-073-074-082. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...Franks AVIATION...JGL