FXUS61 KILN 090646 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 246 AM EDT Fri May 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Surface high pressure will bring dry conditions through the weekend, with warming temperatures by Sunday. Showers and storms will return to the area for the first half of the week, as an upper trough moves northeast through the region, bringing slightly cooler temperatures. Another warming trend is expected for the end of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Current surface analysis shows that a cold front has moved south of the area, with NNE flow bringing cooler and drier (lower theta-e) air into the region. At 850mb, the theta-e boundary is a little bit to the north of the surface boundary, which explains why there is still some moisture -- and patches of clouds here and there -- drifting through the area. These remaining clouds will trend toward clearer conditions as the 850mb front continues moving south. The dry conditions (precipitable water values of around 3 tenths of an inch) will allow for mostly clear skies today, with just some isolated shallow cumulus development during the afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid 60s are expected. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... Dry weather will continue through Saturday, as an area of surface high pressure will be in place over the Ohio Valley. Skies will remain clear to mostly clear. A weak cold front is expected to move south through the Great Lakes on Saturday, but it will be falling apart as it gets closer to the Ohio Valley late Saturday into Saturday evening, with no impact to the weather expected. Low temperatures Saturday morning will generally be in the lower 40s, though some upper 30s will be possible in outlying areas in central Ohio. Slightly warmer temperatures are then expected Saturday, with highs in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the Ohio Valley through the remainder of the weekend, but shifting east, and allowing for southerly return flow and warming trend through the latter part of the weekend and into the next work week. Highs on Sunday will increase into the mid-upper 70s, and approach 80 by Monday. Upper low over the lower MS valley will lift into the lower Ohio Valley beginning on Monday, bringing a chance for precip mainly affecting areas south of I-70. By Tuesday and into Wednesday, increased moisture and some instability will bring the potential for showers/storms through the mid Ohio Valley. A brief respite in the precip chances Wednesday night into early Thursday, as the upper low continues to shift eastward. A growing signal for well above normal temperatures by Thursday into Friday with H5 heights nearing 580/more typical of mid summer, which could bring mid 80s into the region and possibly warmer on Friday. A strong upper low over the northern plains by Thursday, along with the mid Ohio Valley being positions at the top edge of the strong ridge centered over the Gulf Coast states sets up a pattern for ridge riding precip for Thursday into Friday. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A brief period of MVFR ceilings will probably reach KDAY in the next few hours, and there is a low probability of MVFR ceilings at other TAF sites between now and 12Z as well. FEW to possibly SCT diurnal cumulus can be expected during the day, with NNE winds that may gust up to 15-20 knots. Lighter winds and clearer skies are then expected by late afternoon and early evening. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hatzos NEAR TERM...Hatzos SHORT TERM...Hatzos LONG TERM...JDR AVIATION...Hatzos