FXUS61 KILN 070548 AFDILN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington OH 148 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No substantial changes. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Several rounds of showers through the weekend. 2) Temperatures will be normal to below normal. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1) Fairly stable mid level pattern with mean troughing across eastern North America. Tail end of an initial short wave along with a modest westerly low level jet and a weak east-west boundary could produce some showers tonight for areas north of I-70. The next short wave will have a bit more amplitude and be able to push a weak cold front through the area Friday night, with a low possibly tracking along the front. This system will generate the most precipitation with amounts up to 1/2 inch possible. Instability looks quite limited, but cannot completely rule out some thunder. Another weak wave and its surface reflection will move through Saturday night. But weak forcing along with limited moisture should keep precipitation pretty spotty. The next short wave in the series will amplify as it dives southeast towards the area into the base of the long wave trough during the latter part of the weekend. Available moisture does not look overly impressive, but with stronger forcing there should be greater coverage of showers and possibly thunderstorms, mainly Sunday afternoon into the evening. At the moment rainfall amounts look like less than 1/4 inch. KEY MESSAGE 2) The long wave trough will generally keep cooler conditions across the region. There will be a modest warm up to around normal from Friday night into Saturday night. But then temperatures will drop back below normal until the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR will prevail. Just a few lingering cumulus passing across the area to start. An area of high clouds will move through the region after 12Z with a few more cumulus developing after this passes. A VFR deck will spread into the area after 00Z. Light west northwest winds will increase after 12Z with some gusts to around 20 kt during the day. Winds will decrease towards 00Z and then back to southerly. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday morning. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION... AVIATION...