FXUS61 KILN 051751

AFDILN



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington OH

151 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No significant changes.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times into the

weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon across our far

east and southeast in a region of better instability. Flow is fairly

light through the mid levels so storms will continue to be very slow

moving and capable of producing locally heavy downpours and isolated

flooding. The storms are diurnally driven so expect them to 

dissipate as we head into this evening. 



A shallow mid/upper level trough will remain in place across the 

Great Lakes region through this weekend and into early next week, 

with fairly typical summertime temperatures continuing. Several, 

mainly weaker impulses are forecast to move through the trough 

during this timeframe, but models are struggling in their timing, 

placement and overall strength of these. As a result, expect 

occasional chances for showers and storms at times through much of 

the period -- but it is tough to pinpoint much in the way of 

specifics. 



In the nearer term, the better chances for precipitation currently 

appear to be in the Friday to Friday night time period as a weak 

surface boundary approaches from the west. Mid level winds will 

pickup somewhat over the next few days, leading to some marginal 

deeper layer shear. This could lead to the potential for a few 

stronger to possibly severe storms as we head through the end of the 

week and into the weekend but confidence remains fairly low. 



&&



.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Scattered thunderstorm activity will generally remain to the southeast

of the I-71 corridor through this afternoon - so KCMH/KLCK/KILN will

remain on the edge of these. Will cover this threat with a prob30 

shra for those TAF sites. The storms should dissipate heading into 

this evening with decreasing clouds overnight. Isolated showers and 

thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Thursday but chances

appear low enough to leave a mention out of the TAFs attm. 



OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times through Monday.



&&



.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OH...None.

KY...None.

IN...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JGL

AVIATION...JGL